Thread by @DrSimEvans

+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

So @CarbonBrief has just published some eye-popping stats showing global coal power's set for a record drop in 2019.

-303TWh globally (3%)
-173 US
-151 US
-24 India (yes, India)
+24 China (range -24 to +71)

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…

The global 3% / 300TWh fall in electricity generation from coal this year would be the largest in records spanning 35yrs.

It'll beat a fall of 148TWh in 2009 in the wake of global financial crisis and a 217TWh cut in 2015 following a slowdown in China.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…

The most remarkable part of the analysis showing a record drop in global coal power output in 2019 is, I would argue, in India, where there's been a sharp turnaround towards coal generation *falling this year*.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…

The reasons for the record drop in coal power in 2019 vary from country to country but key factors are:

* rise of renewables
* weak or falling power demand, esp in OECD
* CO2 prices (mainly EU)
* gas (mainly in the US)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…

Yes, it's true that alongside this year's expected record drop in coal power output , some countries (mainly China) are continuing to add new capacity.

But that just means an economic hit to coal plants, which get to run fewer hours.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…