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MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 29Nov19 wk48

1/n

• Vola is dead (FX,SPX), long live Vola (CL,NG)
• Oil&NatGas plunge on ATH supply vs less demand
• China PMI rebounds
• Creditspreads tighter
• green shoots in some ESI surveys ?
• Footie Group F WTF !

2/n Nov performance

• 47 or so global CB rate cuts supporting the stock market

• credits supportive too

• Chile turmoil leaves ECH and Peso at the bottom, sad.

• Pound sterling top of the class ahead of GE

3/n global markets YTD as of wk48

4/n global mkt overview performances wk/mth/YTD

5/n FX matrix wk & mth

6/n global markets momentum/ trend/exhaustion scores wk48

• NZ making new 52wk highs
• XOP new 52wk low
• US healthcare hot

@kevinmuir

@kevinmuir

7/n Rates scoreboard

• no rating changes [ DK confirmed by Moodys & IRE by S&P tho]

• BoK left rates unch

• IT & PT 10Y at 3M high yields

• CA still with inverted YC ( I post this sheet every week, but thx to @kevinmuir to highlight too)

8/n regarding Canada's persisting yieldcurve inversion... it re-steepened too, but not into positive slope, and now with new flattening, nosedived into red zone again.

solution: BoC cuts

9/n because BoC is at par to FED... and didn't hear the bell ring

10/n CDX NA IG is 0.8bp shy of new 52wk low by the way...

11/n CDX is still very much supportive for US stocks overall, but remember, SPX YoY is also distorted from last year sell-off.

12/n VIX is dead ? nope. it's just having a f*cking nap

13/n back-end of the VIX futures curve is only a touch lower, meaning, not much has changed in 6mths expectations, but it's the front part which "collapsed" and created an ever steeper contango 1-3months, and that is temporary, x-mas silent nights so to speak

14/n Crude Oil and NatGas experienced a BlackFridaySale.

• new record output, while demand fell. BOOM
• CL -5%, puts 3-5x-fold
• vol +6 (or +19% , PERCENTAGE ??? I know, don't shoot )
• RB -5%
• HO -3%
• XOP , XLE down
• RUB, NOK weaker
• NG -6%
...

15/n moving along to European biz sentiment

• ESI overall stable and perhaps some green shoots, but also still some areas of concern: Netherlands, Austria, Sweden,

• Turkey 15M high

• Greece remains in the top quad [ GREK and Greek bonds top European performer YTD ]

16/n selected ESI countries' economic sentiment vs YoY vs core 10Y rates YoY...

5Y rolling z-scores hit some nerves, but it's too early to say if the bottom is in place or just a retracement. NL/AT is concerning

17/n ESI Euro Area

perhaps stablising, but no trend change yet.

18/n ESI Germany

index stable, BUT heavyweight (40%) manufacturing made new 7Y low

19/n ESI Austria

• ESI & manufacturing 3.5y low
• Consumer confidence 3y low

20/n ESI Netherlands

• ESI new 5+yr low
• Manufacturing, Retail, Construction all hit 3.5 lows

21/n ESI Italy

• Consumer confidence hit new 28M low

22/n ESI Greece

more Ouzo !

23/n ESI Turkey

more Turkish delights

24/n ESI UK

bottom & rebound ahead of GE ?

25/n moving to China...

Caixin already hit 32M high last month and now NBR (or NBS) rebound to 50.2 or 13M high.

Did my best to create this fantastic spurious correlation between the average of both and the global ACWI ETF -all on YoY basis- and topped it with "year of the pig"

26/n and last but not least... FIFA Group F - W T F !!!! Germany out in group stage like Worldcup 2018 Russia ? 🍻👋 🇩🇪 ⚽️

27/n next week:

• Monday Global M.PMI, ISM (most should start to improve)
• Tuesday RBA (oi mate)
• Wednesday Global S.PMI, NMI, BoC (COME ON, CUT!)
• Thursday RBI (6th cut?)
• Friday #NFPGuesses wager game, flash UoM