Thread by @hayward_katy

Wrote this @IrishTimesOped.
👇
Here's a summary + supporting evidence in the form of a **Mighty Thread** using @ARK_info data 📊 & work with @BenRosher [🙌].

Right so.
Do public opinion, #GE19 & #Brexit make a United Ireland inevitable? 🧐

TL;DR: No.
1/ irishtimes.com/opinion/northe…

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher Reason why DUP is under pressure isn't due to a general ‘greening’ of NI electorate nor down to any fabled ‘pan-nationalist front’.

They lost because of a pro-#Remain vote coming from unionist voters as well as nationalist ones
+ those who don't identity with either. #Neither
2/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc & I argued: "to be Neither Unionist nor Nationalist does not automatically mean you vote for an ‘alternative’ or middle ground party such as Alliance."
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

Neithers vote across the spectrum & –more notably– many don’t vote at all
...Until #GE19?
3/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc According to NI Life&Times Survey, 1 in 2 people identify as #Neither unionist nor nationalist.

Pushed to answer The Q🙄, the majority are in favour of NI being part of the UK on condition of devolved NI govt.
('tho 2yrs without @niassembly incr. support for direct rule).

4/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly #Brexit hasn't encouraged #Neithers towards favouring Irish unity. In fact, there's been an increase in those saying it makes them *less* in favour, up from 5 to 12% since 2016.

That said, #Neithers have increasingly come to see #Brexit as making a United Ireland more likely.
5/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly But –hold your horses– this is across the board.
In 2016, 18% Unionist respondents thought #Brexit made a Utd Ireland more likely; by 2018 it was 28%.
Proportion of Nationalists thinking this rose from 38% in 2016 to 64% in 2018.
Steady decline in those saying it had no effect
6/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly Unconvinced?
How about we break down the results by Party Support?

By 2018, according to NILT, supporters of all parties of were increasingly minded to think that #Brexit makes a United Ireland more likely.

And note Alliance party supporters very much think this to be so.

7/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly But. There is a big difference between expecting something & welcoming it.

As per that @IrishTimesOpEd:
1/3 DUP supporters say #Brexit makes them more resistant to idea of a united Ireland.
Whereas 1/2 Sinn Féin supporters say #Brexit makes them more in favour of unity.

8/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly Unsurprising polarisation there.

BUT NILT survey also finds almost 1 in 3 Alliance Party supporters say #Brexit makes them more in favour of Irish unity.

This has been the case since 2016, so not a blip.

Undoubtedly worth watching for in 2019 results [being collated].📝

9/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly What is happening in the middle, among the avowedly non-aligned, is fascinating.
They are [now] voting.
They were motivated, it seems, by Remain.
They are increasingly of the view that #Brexit makes a United Ireland more likely.
But they are not necessarily in favour of it.
10/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly Whilst people in NI are increasingly likely to think #Brexit makes Irish unity more likely, there's increasing polarization in terms of how people view the prospect.

Numbers for a #BorderPoll are still some way off it seems. Functioning devolution is the majority preference.
11/

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly Whether NI Assembly/Executive are seen as stepping stone, to, or stalwart against, Irish unification is a matter of political preference.

But all three Strands of the B/GFA, based on devolution, remain the most sure way to endure what is going to be a very turbulent time.

12/12

@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc @niassembly Addendum:
No source of survey data is without limitations.
I use NILT cos it's the most reliable source of time series data, i.e. tracking change in NI public opinion over yrs.
Data is gathered at end of each calendar year.
2019 results will be out in June with more on all this..