One of the most important lessons in tech is the "PC revolution vs. the mainframe". At the start of the 1980s, the world was dominated by IBM mainframes and were the future of computing. By the end of the 1980s, they'd disappeared.
Mainframes didn't actually disappear. 30 years later, the business is roughly as large as it always ways. It's just that it's no larger. The overall industry has seen enormous growth, and none of the growth has been in mainframes.
IBM sells tens of billions of mainframe products and services. It's just we don't see it. IBM is not out trying to get new customers in their mainframe business, just keep existing customers. If you aren't an existing customer, it doesn't exist for you.
Microsoft's core identity comes from how they stole all the growth away from IBM.
But then the web came along, with browsers started taking all the growth from desktop applications. And Microsoft fought hard to prevent themselves from becoming another IBM.
But then the web came along, with browsers started taking all the growth from desktop applications. And Microsoft fought hard to prevent themselves from becoming another IBM.
They were moderately successful there.
Then the iPhone/Android came along. At this point, the desktop became the mainframe. The market hasn't gone away, but almost all the growth has been in mobile devices.
Then the iPhone/Android came along. At this point, the desktop became the mainframe. The market hasn't gone away, but almost all the growth has been in mobile devices.
That video of Balmer laughing at the iPhone is everything that is tech. Balmer KNEW, in his very bones, what Microsoft did to IBM. He was in there at the very beginning. Yet, here is at the moment when the iPhone does the same to him.
He either could not recognize what was happening, or did but knew it was too late to respond. Microsoft did try to respond. Windows on ARM mobile was a great product. It was just too late, and its greatest didn't matter.
I mean, Microsoft was a pioneer in smart mobile devices, with Windows CE, a great product for mobile devices before iPhone came along. Blackberry's were also amazingly good products. Nokia's Symbian was also great.
But iPhone had multitouch and a GPU, so could pinch/zoom the real web instead of the bastardized mobile web. And that was everything, and everything before it became nothing.
Microsoft lost the mobile device war. But another disrupter is the cloud, and their Azure competes quite well there. So they haven't completely become IBM's and are still out there winning new customers.
Linux on the desktop was always nonsense, not for technical reasons, but for market reasons. The old battles are won, you'll never win trying to fight old battles. You can, however, win by going after new battles.
Linux dominates in cloud and mobile devices. And it'll never, ever displace Microsoft on the desktop.
So my prediction for 2030: the existing tech giants will continue to dominate their current markets, but most of the growth in the industry will go to what will become new tech giants. Facebook and Google will like more like old IBM and less like innovative companies.
I haven't a clue who these companies will be or where that growth will happen. But it's a prediction if made in 2010, 2000, 1990, 1980, 1970, etc. would've been a successful prediction.
