One of the terrorists killed along with Soleimani was Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, leader of Kataib Hezbollah (“Brigades of the Party of God”). dailysign.al/35mMKeG @DailySignal
@DailySignal SecDef Mark Esper said: “The game has changed.” Washington will no longer tolerate attacks by Iran-backed proxy groups without inflicting a heavy price, not only on them, but on Iran, which historically has acted with impunity by conducting a shadow war through surrogates.
@DailySignal This policy of holding Tehran accountable for the attacks of its proxies was announced by the White House in a 2018 statement, after Iranian-backed Iraqi militias attacked American diplomatic facilities in Iraq: whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
@DailySignal The successful strike against Suleimani is a powerful message to Iranian leaders that their old tactics of “fighting to the last Iraqi” in a shadow war against the U.S. now entail many more risks and costs.
@DailySignal If sustained over time, that could alter their cost-benefit calculus and lead them to moderate their hostile and aggressive policies.
But in the immediate aftermath of Suleimani’s death, Tehran is likely to respond on several tracks, as usual.
But in the immediate aftermath of Suleimani’s death, Tehran is likely to respond on several tracks, as usual.
@DailySignal On one track, it will play the victim card and seek to mobilize its Iraqi allies to expel the U.S. military presence through legislation passed by Iraq’s parliament or by a direct request of Iraq’s weak coalition government, which has been infiltrated by Iran’s Iraqi friends.
@DailySignal On another track, the Quds Force is likely to employ its proxy network on a variety of fronts to launch terrorist attacks and kidnapping operations to take American hostages.
@DailySignal Tehran also may choose to ratchet up its cyberattacks, assaults on oil tankers, and missile strikes on the energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, or accelerate its violations of its nuclear nonproliferation commitments.
@DailySignal However, all these tracks now have become increasingly risky. All are unlikely to yield significant gains, but sure to provoke even stronger action from the Trump administration.
The conflict with Iran will continue, but the rules of the game are shifting.
The conflict with Iran will continue, but the rules of the game are shifting.
