Thread by @Charles_Lister

Taking a brief foray back to Twitter to note the strategic significance of today's U.S. strikes on Kataib #Hezbollah in #Syria & #Iraq.

19 dead (incl. 3 #IRGC) & 35+ wounded is a major response by the U.S. - alike #Israel's retaliatory modus operandi - BUT note: U.S is exposed.

#pt: The U.S. government apparatus (esp. IC) has known for a long time - and feared - this scenario, whereby the death of an American would necessitate a serious response, which in turn would leave U.S. personnel in #Syria & especially #Iraq exposed to #IRGC counter-retaliation.

#pt: #IRGC-linked rocket attacks in #Iraq are hardly new, but the death of an American was.

Likewise, the death of 19+ KH fighters is new & a marked walk up the escalation ladder.

#Iran holds the cards now & re-escalation seems likely -- leaving #Trump in a position he fears.

#pt: A KH/PMU response lies mainly in the hands of Qassem Soleimani - who's made it his quest to evict #America from the #MiddleEast, leaving #Israel strategically exposed.

Watch east #Syria & attacks on U.S. facilities in #Iraq, plus "black swans" like #Iran joining in #Idlib.

2 days ago, I said the US was exposed & the ball was in #Iran’s court; their response:

A major protest has besieged the US Embassy in #Baghdad & breached security perimeters. Very dangerous situation unfolding. #Iraq forces did little to prevent this.

https://twitter.com/baxtiyargoran/status/1211953187177021441?s=21

https://twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/1211953187177021441

#pt: As CTS forces race to the US Embassy compound, pro-#Iran protesters have breached a further gate into the Embassy, where all staff reportedly remain in place.

This could spiral out of control or begin to dissipate - either way, this is a game-changing moment in #Iraq IMO.

Reports - An “American” drone strike just killed the #PMU’s “Head of Protocol,” Mohammed Reda al-Jabri, along with 2 aides & 3 “guests” (i.e. #IRGC) on their exit from #Baghdad Airport.

If that’s accurate, the #Trump admin just ratcheted up the ante in #Iraq in a big way.

NEW - I’m seeing reports that one confirmed fatality in the #Baghdad strike (allegedly by a US drone) is senior #Hezbollah leader Mohammed al-Kawthrani, Qassem Soleimani’s frontmen in #Iraq.

BREAKING - multiple reports coming from #Iraq claiming that *both* #IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani & #PMU Deputy Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes were killed tonight in the [alleged US] drone strike outside #Baghdad Airport.

Massive news, if it’s accurate.

#Iraq-i politician Mashan al-Jabouri has just tweeted a message mourning Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes. #Baghdad #Iran

https://twitter.com/mashanaljabouri/status/1212896580292009985?s=21

https://twitter.com/mashanaljabouri/status/1212896580292009985

The death of Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, whether by #American or #Israel fire, poses a very real risk of major conflict in #Iraq & possibly elsewhere in the #MiddleEast. It appears confirmed too.

If Qassem Soleimani was also killed, that worse case scenario becomes almost certain.

BREAKING - #Iraq TV confirms the death of #IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani & #PMU Deputy Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes in an air strike tonight in #Baghdad.

Huge news. A massive escalation.