1/ Michel Barnier took the unusual step of recommending a legal basis for the future UK-EU partnership before talks have even begun at a meeting of ambassadors yesterday - he proposed Article 217, an Association Agreement. This matters for a few reasons. thesun.co.uk/news/10854190/…
2/ First of all, it gives us further insight into how the EU is going to approach the negotiations and what its priorities will be. An Association Agreement means the entire relationship will be encompassed by one governance structure and set of Level Playing Field conditions.
3/ This precludes the idea of a Swiss-style relationship, in which the UK and EU could've struck a quick FTA on goods during the transition period with its own distinct provisions in these areas, and then separately approached sectors like security, transport etc afterwards.
4/ Ordinarily the Commission doesn't propose a legal basis for an agreement with a 3rd country until it's clear where it's going in terms of the scope of the relationship. The fact the EU is moving early here shows both its level of preparedness and concern about these talks.
5/ It has the effect of thrusting the 'architecture' of the relationship to the forefront. The EU wants to build a big house which may be sparsely furnished at first, with perhaps just a goods agreement, but which over time can be added to with 'state of the art' sectoral deals.
6/ From the EU perspective getting the structure sorted early provides a solid foundation of trust on which to build a close relationship. It prevents lots of parallel sector-by-sector negotiations and give solid guarantees about how dispute settlement will work across the board.
7/ Article 217 also requires unanimity of EU27 governments and EU Parliament backing, which gives Member States/MEPs reassurance about their level on involvement. But the question of whether the final deal will be mixed, and so require EU27 parliament ratification, remains open.
8/ But the UK may be wary of an Association Agreement. It requires Britain to sign up to governance measures - including possible ECJ involvement - and a Level Playing Field right at the start. Some pretty important things will have to be agreed long before everything is agreed.
9/ The negotiations themselves will be structured in a 3-week rolling cycle - preparation week, talks week, debrief week, reset. As the Dec 31 deadline looms this may become compressed, but the structure will remain intact. It's similar to the structure of the Withdrawal talks.
10/ The Commission is proposing an ambitious approach to getting as much done as possible with 12 separate strands - covering areas like goods, services, security, defence, fisheries etc - set to be tackled in parallel, albeit with a more intense focus on the key areas for now.
11/ EU diplomats are adamant that they have heard Britain's message about divergence loud and clear and this approach is 'not about keeping the UK hostage' to Brussels rules. 'The EU has completely accepted the UK is leaving and will have regulatory autonomy and diverge.'
12/ But they see the only way to make sure the deal 'doesn’t crash on impact' is a system of 'credible governance and common rules' to foster trust. The EU knows it'll have a big political battle on its hands with the UK but thinks it's ultimately in both sides' interests. ENDS.
