Is the flu deadlier than #coronavirus?
Reading about this reminded me of Nassim Taleb’s distinction between Extremistan and Mediocristan /1
Reading about this reminded me of Nassim Taleb’s distinction between Extremistan and Mediocristan /1
Weight comes from Mediocristan. Suppose you select 1000 people randomly. Then add up their collective weight. Then you add the heaviest person in the world. This large person would account for only about 0.6 percent of their collective weight /2
Book sales come from Extremistan. Suppose you select 1000 authors randomly. Then add up their collective book sales. Then you add JK Rowling. She would account for at least 99.9% of their collective book sales /3
Mediocristan is predictable. Car accidents come from Mediocristan. About 1.35 million people per year worldwide die from car accidents. It is likely that car accidents next year will look very similar to this year /4
Extremistan is unpredictable. In 2019, nobody died of coronavirus. In January 2020, 259 people died of coronavirus. So far in February, 2,600 people have died of coronavirus /5
Discussing another outbreak, Taleb wrote, “if we were to read in the newspaper that 2 billion people have died suddenly, is it far more likely that they died of ebola than smoking or diabetes or tangled in their bedsheets?” /6
Is the flu from Mediocristan or Extremistan?
Is coronavirus from Mediocristan or Extremistan?
"In Extremistan, inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact the aggregate, or the total." /8
Is coronavirus from Mediocristan or Extremistan?
"In Extremistan, inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact the aggregate, or the total." /8
