Here's my latest for Conservative Home - making the case for the Government seeking no deal as an outcome. FTAOD I haven't had a damascene conversion but, I fear, is a strategy that may make sense from the perspective of the Government. Here's why. /1
conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/…
conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/…
The Government says that the fundamental point of Brexit is to recover 'political and economic independence in full'. At most, that results in a distant relationship with the EU compared to where we are now with much disruption. Any deal will be very thin. /2
If a deal can be reached, which will not be easy. Independence 'in full' doesn't give the Govt much space for compromise. So a deal won't have that much of an economic gain (because the deal we're after is so unambitious) but will involve the Govt in a lot of political pain. /3
And if a deal is reached, the PM will have to sell it. He'll be very good at doing that but he'll have ownership of it. He will be blamed if things go wrong (and for lots of people, it will). If there's no deal, the consequences can be blamed on the intransigent EU. /4
Everything the Govt is doing is consistent with collapsing the talks. A lot of effort blaming the EU for making new and unreasonable demands, rebranding no deal ('Australia style deal'). Also, Govt's behaviour on the Northern Ireland Protocol undermines trust. /5
Why would the EU trust our assertions on environmental and social protections or state aid when we're not prepared to stand by what we agreed in October over checking goods going from GB to NI? This will only make the EU dig in. /6
If it's inevitable that the talks are going to blow up, when's the best time for this to happen? I suspect that some in No 10 will think sooner rather than later. Gives the EU time to retreat (which I doubt but the Govt might believe it) and businesses time to prepare for WTO. /7
Critics would be justified in saying that all this would be reckless, evasive of responsibility, dishonest and cynical. But politically, on the evidence of the last few years, it would probably work. I fear the Government must be tempted. /END
