4/The Turkish military through artillery and precise drones have been targeting with much success hundreds of Syrian positions, amour, & installations since the Turkish backed recapture of Saraqib which has heavily damaged the SAA (pro-government media has been coy on casualties)
5/ Turkey has done more harm to the Syrian army in days than whole areas & sectors did in years of fighting, the Syrian military has shown a complete lack of ability to deal with Turkish drones, videos of Turkish-inflicted carnage caused some criticism towards the Russians.
6/ For SAA it has been loss after loss with regards to men and equipment since #Turkey began hitting positions & amour, which tells us why advances have been so slow in certain areas &casualties high. Turkish drones have been over Idlib like hornets over the last few days
7/ Images of captured Syrian amour also show the rare use of camouflage, suggesting measures have been taken to decrease vulnerability to drone strikes, meaning they have been getting targeted for a while now, and the Russians have been able to provide no assistance or reprieve .
9/ #Russia supports the Syrian army with air strikes, but in return it has no willingness to do anything else, its economic interests are secured (taking over Syrian gas & phosphates. ect), it wants to reap the benefits of its intervention not get drawn into to a regional war.
11/ For the Syrian army, the situation was catastrophic, and the large losses in manpower and equipment have not only added up, but have paralyzed the Syrian army around #Idlib, meaning a well-planned militant offensive could reverse most SAA gains this month.
12/ Whilst its difficult to provide estimations, perhaps SAA casualties have averaged around 50 a day since #Turkey began using armed drones, fighting on the front-lines included. The equipment losses have been considerable, but conspicuously easier to replace.
15/ The attack on Turkish forces happened at night, and Syrian warplanes lack effective night-time capabilities, its air force rarely operates in the evening.
16/NATO & U.S government have decided to back Turkey, at least politically and Erdogan has held an intransigent stance on #Idlib, so who will back down? Turkey cannot afford to, but Russia may have allowed Syrian forces to be smashed to pieces by drones as a way to appease Turkey
18/ Whilst the strikes which killed two dozen Turkish soldiers are highly significant and represent an escalation of the type we haven’t seen before, the Turkish response has been deadly for SAA, perhaps ending any further serious Idlib offensive in the immediate future.
23/ Syrian sources have told me that the Russians request that the roads are left clear by SAA for the convoys going into the posts, and that they are left unhindered by Syrian forces, much to some Syrian annoyance.
24/ Despite Turkey’s lack of acknowledgment of Russian actions against its forces, Russia has stuck Turkish positions & killed Turkish soldiers on numerous occasions In the Idlib offensive, sometimes it is covered as Syrian artillery strikes or passed off for Syrian air-strikes.
25/ But Russian jets have been known to be shelling areas where Turkish forces were located and had jets actively targeting the location on most occasions that Turkish troops were killed.
26/ Turkey has also gradually introduced MANPADS into the fight, it downed two Syrian helicopters and during the day of the 27th February, Russian jets barely escaped Turkish MANPADS on three separate occasions, another example of Turkey wanting to up the ante.
27/ Turkish strikes In Idlib have added another dimension to this escalation by killing members of Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups, the Iranian “Centre in #Syria” issued a clear threat, stating that “We are able to take revenge but did not on the orders of our leadership”
28/ The Iranians also noted that the surrounded Turkish observation posts were under the line of fire of their forces and that it could be a target in the future, perhaps a ploy to ward of any further Turkish attacks on their positions.
29/ Given the fact that the Iranian backed forces have been scarcely fighting on the front-lines in #Idlib, it is plausible that further Turkish strikes on installations in Aleppo or Hama could have more chance of killing Iranian backed forces.
31/ Turkish drone downed by Syrian forces in #Idlib, the first time that has happened for over a week, has Russia provided some A/D assistance or advice.
32/ Two Syrian warplanes were seemingly targeted and shot down by #Turkey, pilots managed to eject and parachute to safety.
33/ The arguments made by @MSuchkov_ALM show the balancing act #Moscow must do when dealing with #Turkey in pursuing a longer-term gain rather than a quick fix
36/ Important, Iranian threats to retaliate against #Turkey came from 'Iranian advisory centre' something we/I haven't heard of before, proves Iranian backed groups have a presence & part of the forces surrounding Turkish observation posts
@HamidRezaAz
@HamidRezaAz
37/ Russian jets have been far more active around #Idlib since Erdogan's deadline for SAA to withdraw ended, regular sorties today.
39/ Turkish drone strikes on Syrian armoured vehicles have continued with deadly efficiency.
41/ #Russia wants to end this favourably, but in order to do that now, it's going to have to take some actions and measures on the ground to save face.
42/ If the volume and lethality of Turkish attacks continue, #Russia will effectively be cornered into taking some action or settling on a quick deal, also the sustainability of these Turkish attacks are also important, can they keep up this intensity and agression.
44/ Over the last 24 hours Russian air-force has been far more active and forceful, paving the way for a successful SAA offensive in Saraqib, its jets have been constantly active since Turkeys deadline ended.
45/ Kafr-Nubl is also close to being captured by Turkish-backed factions
46/ Retaking of #Sarqib was a Syrian military/Russian priority, all other gains on the M5 highway are useless without it, but this doesnt mean it's war for Saraqib over, the city will likely see more fighting in days to come and the rebels/Turkey wont give up on it. #Strategic
48/ The deployment of official Russian military police in the strategic city of Saraqib can be viewed as #Russia trying to secure a key negotiating card before Erdogans meeting with Putin, that city is crucial in some many ways now.
49/ These points will all be on the agenda, and other limited military victories will be sought in the meanwhile, but holding existing territory is now crucial for both sides
