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Order, chaos, bah. This is chemistry, in fact it is my entropy and free energy lecture. We teach both so badly that most chemists, for God’s sake, understand neither. I use analogies like this, or a simple marble shaker, to show the ideas. Let’s go.
The shaking rate is important, let’s name it T.
The average height of the mass of the nails seems important, let’s give it a name, I dunno, H. The H started high and went lower, but with greater T or lighter nails or less gravity it could have gone up.
But something a little more subtle is also important, and that is the number of ways the nails can be arranged. A low H limits the positions for the nails, so there are fewer ways they can be arranged. At a high H there are more. Let’s call the number of ways, maybe, omega.
Now to figure out what the nails are going to do we need to allow for the H and the T and the omega. Ignoring omega for now, gravity favors a lower H, but with a little shaking we can get a higher H, disfavored by some factor that increases with H. If we go up in H again, gravity
again disfavors it by the same factor. The repeat of factor vs H makes the relationship an exponential, so we can suggest a relationship between the ratio at high versus low H, call it k, and the shaking T that looks like k=exp(-H/RT) where I have thrown in a constant and called
it R (I might have called it k also, but that would be confusing). Think about this equation and you see it works perfectly. Lower shaking, k gets smaller. Double the H and the k (less than 1) should square.

Now I have to allow for the omega. If a given H has twice the omega,
then that H will be favored by a factor of 2. So I might change the equation to k = exp(-H/RT) times omega(high H)/omega(low H), but that is a bit unwieldy. I really want an equation where I can work with a single number that is conveniently additive and that go into a simple
exponential equation. No problem, I just have to define some new terms based on the ones I have, but that allow a simplified equation. To get my ratios of omegas into an exponential, I just need to take the log, and it won’t matter if I throw in an extra constant, so I’ll define
something as R ln omega and call it, oh, S. Now I can write my equation as k = exp(-H/RT) times exp(S/R) and it is just the same - the R is thrown in just to cancel out the previous R, and the exp just reversed the ln. I have really just allowed for the count of configurations,
the omega, in a fancy way.

So far so good, but we can make the equation simpler if we define a single term that combines the H and the S. Let’s use G for the new term, and define it as G = H - T S. The T and the minus are thrown in just to be canceled out later, to let us
write k = exp(-G/RT).

Of course this only works if the lowest H is assigned as 0, but we can compare any two using a deltaG.

Some notes: every time a student learns that entropy is “a measure of the disorder in a system” the world gets collectively dumber. I hate that useless
definition. It is an intuition killer. Entropy is a count of the possibilities, done in a fancy way that lets you work with the count of possibilities and allow for it easily.
Also, people will says that the video is backwards. I don’t know but it is irrelevant. At very high shaking you would get a high H and one of the very many disorders possibilities. At low shaking and a long time, you get a low H and one of the fewer ordered possibilities.
The equilibrium can be taken either way, whether it is nails or ice crystals, by changing the T (as shaking or temperature).
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