Will the rallies continue until super-spreading is proved?
UW's @trvrb estimates ~570 cases in WA, a state of 7.5 million. So an event with >9120 people chosen at random from WA has >50% chance of having at least one case.
That's how super-spreading happens. Here's the math.
UW's @trvrb estimates ~570 cases in WA, a state of 7.5 million. So an event with >9120 people chosen at random from WA has >50% chance of having at least one case.
That's how super-spreading happens. Here's the math.
@trvrb Please note: this is an *apolitical* comment, and applies to large gatherings of any kind: political rallies, conferences like SXSW, parades.
As the proportion of infected gets larger, even a relatively small "event" like a corporate office with 100 people has significant risk.
As the proportion of infected gets larger, even a relatively small "event" like a corporate office with 100 people has significant risk.
@trvrb Please note: large events in states like CA, MA, NY with evidence of community spread have a similar risk calculus.
Reason: while molecular evidence gives us a direct estimate of ~570 cases in one cluster in WA, we're seeing community spread now that testing has finally begun.
Reason: while molecular evidence gives us a direct estimate of ~570 cases in one cluster in WA, we're seeing community spread now that testing has finally begun.
