All this. The think I notice is the 'transparency' on the UK side - no more real attempts at subterfuge. Still plenty of spin, of course, but an attempt to shape the talks via frankness about the 'difficulties' and philosophical and material differences on governance, fish etc /1
So the UK feels it has won/is winning wider public argument about the EU attaching unreasonable demands for such 'basic' FTA...the problem is that, as EU officials like to say, "this isn't about fairness, it's a negotiation". /2
The UK wants to be treated as a "sovereign equal", but while the EU and the UK might be "equally sovereign" (as @MichelBarnier pointed out) they are not equal, obviously, in size and heft. In the end this will be about outcomes. /3
@MichelBarnier From what I see the UK is trapped between demanding only a "basic FTA", which excludes the UK from a bunch of good stuff that any rationale person would want to stay part of - while *actually* asking, in aggregate for a lot more than a 'basic' FTA /4
@MichelBarnier So the UK, by picking across a smorgasbord of EU FTA - a bit of this from South Korea deal, a bit of that from Mexico with an NZ vet agreement on top - it is, in aggregate asking for better-than-Canada levels of access. Which the EU won't grant without strings /5
@MichelBarnier At the same time, as @DavidHenigUK points out, the UK strictures on 'only an FTA-type relationship' means that it is excluding itself from areas of security co-operation, health integration (the epidemic warning system for EG) and trade facilitions - EASA membership for EG /6
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK The net result is that all across industry and business people are absolutely fed up.
People who run stuff, deliver stuff & pay salaries that pay mortgages are being told to suck up the self-harm without any costed or cogent explanation of what benefit it will bring. /7
People who run stuff, deliver stuff & pay salaries that pay mortgages are being told to suck up the self-harm without any costed or cogent explanation of what benefit it will bring. /7
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK These same businesses also know full well the same ideologues who have inflicted this cost and economic damage on them, will be the first to turn round and blame them (along with the civil service) for failing to make it work, for causing queues at Dover, for closing factories /8
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK The risk is that even if both sides agree this very skinny/basic FTA, the process will have a toxic dynamic that will not help a bunch of other government objectives in 'levelling up', innovation and rolling out investment spending. /9
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK The philosophical differences well documented - the UK wants 'piecemeal' governance, the EU wants 'over-arching' deal; the UK wants a 'basic FTA'..which the EU reckons isn't that 'basic' at all - the technical gaps are easier to bridge than philosophical ones./10
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK Because in the end this comes down to asymmetry. And the ability and willingness of the EU to extract a price and defend itself.
The UK govt desperately wants the UK to float free; but the EU's size and integration makes its gravitational pull too strong. /11
The UK govt desperately wants the UK to float free; but the EU's size and integration makes its gravitational pull too strong. /11
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK This is the reality to which the UK Government is not reconciled. Because whether making aeroplanes, testing drugs, guarding patents or dealing with pandemics the new 'independent' UK must now reckon with an EU that will not stand idly by while the UK seeks marginal advantage/12
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK That's what all Merkel's warnings about the UK being a 'competitor' on the EU's doorstep were about.
It's no good totting up the marginal advantage of nimbleness, or light-touch regulation for, say the AI or tech sector, if you don't weigh that against the costs /13
It's no good totting up the marginal advantage of nimbleness, or light-touch regulation for, say the AI or tech sector, if you don't weigh that against the costs /13
@MichelBarnier @DavidHenigUK In the end the EU/UK will find a modus vivendi - perhaps the #coronavirus will wake everyone up to how inter-dependent we really are, how fragile supply chains can be; how the economic ecosystem that has grown up under our feet these last 30 years doesn't exist automatically /14
My worry is that reconciling the philosophical difference before October is going to be hard.
Even the 'landing zone' the EU is asking for (say they walk back on State Aid/ECJ) basically will ask @BorisJohnson to throw in the towel on #Brexit before he's even thrown a punch./15
Even the 'landing zone' the EU is asking for (say they walk back on State Aid/ECJ) basically will ask @BorisJohnson to throw in the towel on #Brexit before he's even thrown a punch./15
@BorisJohnson On balance more likely, I suspect, is that fears of 'no deal' (on both sides) mean that EU/UK will shake hands on something skinny in order to create space to 'flatten the curve' of the costs of UK exit. But I'm not betting on this too hard. /16
@BorisJohnson Because the minute everyone starts to talk about the EU 'boiling the frog' etc - Mr Johnson will find himself under a lot of pressure people who still believe #Brexit can deliver great dividends, not to climb in! At this point we cannot tell, but the battle lines are draw. ENDS
