According to @RencapMan (who's been excellent on #coronavirus), Switzerland has the same virus rate as Italy on 4 March implying it should close schools tomorrow & its economy will shut down on 16th March.
Spain follows two days later.
Spain follows two days later.
France should see schools off by Friday with national lockdown on 19th March.
Germany follows a day later.
The UK is currently like Italy on 26th Feb so economic shut-down date is 23th March.
'That’s western Europe out of the global economic picture within two weeks.'
Germany follows a day later.
The UK is currently like Italy on 26th Feb so economic shut-down date is 23th March.
'That’s western Europe out of the global economic picture within two weeks.'
Now let's move to the US.
Its data implies national lock-down looms on 25th March. And it will be looking at about 50,000 cases by the end of this month and probably something like 2000 deaths (slightly lower rate that Italy due to younger population).
Its data implies national lock-down looms on 25th March. And it will be looking at about 50,000 cases by the end of this month and probably something like 2000 deaths (slightly lower rate that Italy due to younger population).
Obviously this will have substantial economic impact.
But what about the political impact in election year? I suspect it may undermine Trump, who has looked even more absurdly out of depth than normal, and could help make the Democrat case for far stronger health coverage.
But what about the political impact in election year? I suspect it may undermine Trump, who has looked even more absurdly out of depth than normal, and could help make the Democrat case for far stronger health coverage.
UK assumes 1 in 5 people get virus over 2020/21. @RencapMan adds there's strong chance one of the main presidential candidates gets infected. 'The good news for US democracy is they’ll survive given China’s case fatality rate is 8.0% for their age group (but we guess 10% for men)
