Thank you everyone so much for the interest shown in this. I have written it up in a nicer form and you can find it at this link ⏬. Let me just discuss a few points 1/ algebris.com/policy-researc…
First, this is NOT a forecast. I took the actual data on COVID-19 by country, normalised per 10k inhabitants, and mapped against the Italian curve to see at which point of that curve each country stands today. No degree of forecasting involved. 2/
Second, this does not imply country X will be where Italy is in a certain number of days. Likely so, in case of inaction, but POLICY makes a huge difference and this is precisley why I tweeted this: I think our experience in 🇮🇹 shows speed is of essence. 3/
About 10% of COVID-19 total cases requires intensive care: at a high speed of contagion, that can overwhelm your national healthcare systems no matter how good and how well equipped. 4/
The Italian region of Lombardy (where the Italian epidemics started) scores 9.9/10 on the OECD Healthcare Index and has one of the best healthcare systems worldwide. Yet, ICUs are strained and patients need to be moved to other regions who still have capacity. 5/
Hence, it is really importamt for people to help #FlattenTheCurve by staying home as much as possible and embracing #SocialDistancing, to protect yourself but especially those around you who may be more at risk. Your conscience is the most important variable at this point!
