Thread by @MartinRemains

The UK’s Covid-19 strategy dangerously leaves too many questions unanswered | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian

All weekend I have been trying to work out what are government policy & actions.

They have done next to nothing.

Please read this. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

China: ‘They listened to the WHO. They tested extensively, setting up mobile testing centres... They cut the time from onset of symptoms to lab result... They identified family clusters... and arranged isolation centres for contacts.’

‘they mobilised communities... Yes, Wuhan was in lockdown, but across the country local authorities had high autonomy to help people abide by these best public health principles. This was not a terrorised population but one passionate about tackling an existential threat.’

‘They also used apps & smartphones to get messages across, to share information about local clusters and for data collection. Everyone in Wuhan... ordered their food online, and had it delivered. And the strategy worked. In seven weeks China stopped the epidemic in its tracks.’

‘Several other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, have copied this strategy, with local modifications, with similar results.’

‘Now they realise they must face the challenge... whether allowing the economy to recover will lead to more outbreaks... they have a nationwide system to jump on new clusters and outbreaks to keep this under control. The aim is to wait and hope for drugs and vaccines to emerge’

‘I had assumed that the UK would do the same, that the authorities would be building their resources & plans around nationwide testing, contact tracing, quarantine & a progressive policy of social distancing... they would inform the public... to get the epidemic under control’

‘the government is not following the WHO strategy. They appear to have concluded that it is inevitable most people would get the disease, so we should let the epidemic proceed to allow 60% of the population to become infected and build herd immunity through the wild virus.’

‘Why have they abandoned pop testing & contact tracing to identify and seclude clusters of infections? They recommend only testing cases in hospital. Won’t this strategy ensure that the spread of the virus is intense & will cause more infections & more deaths in the near term?’

Why do they recommend self-isolation only for people with symptoms when... WHO reports that “people shed more virus in the early phases rather than the late phases of disease”? Asymptomatic contacts may be highly infectious, so they should be tested, isolated & followed up’

‘What are their plans for national, district, municipal, village and community mobilisation? “Nudge” is not enough. We need to devolve power and autonomy to allow locally intelligent decisions around a coherent national strategy.’

‘What is their detailed strategy for screening of infected people in the home, & provision of CT scans for those with early signs of pneumonia and to identify those at high risk? ... are the behavioural and nudge strategies really evidence-based to flatten the peak?’

‘Why are we emphasising herd immunity now? Does coronavirus induce strong herd immunity or is it like flu, where immunity remains weak and new strains emerge each year? We have much to learn about Covid-19 immune responses. Doesn’t this contradict WHO policy?’

‘The WHO policy – practised by China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong – is to keep things damped down until drugs and a vaccine are available. Vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself.’

‘Is it wise or ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of uncertain future benefit?’

‘What is the policy to promote social distancing? How can we promote advice for families, mass gatherings, schools, workplaces, restaurants, theatres? And can we make it locally relevant?’

‘School closures might be phased depending on the intensity of transmission based on local data about clusters, as they did in Singapore. But we need testing and sharing of information online for local decisions.’

‘Finally, on the precautionary principle, shouldn’t we go all out to damp this epidemic down, with all possible measures, whether evidence is strong, uncertain or weak, and worry about herd immunity when we have more evidence?’

‘The stated government policy is to allow 40 million people to become infected. This could mean 6 million hospital admissions, 2 million requiring special or intensive care, and 402,000 deaths if the chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty’s 1% estimate of mortality is correct.’

‘We can suppress this epidemic in the way that China and other countries have done. Then we can worry about how to loosen up, and hope that a vaccine comes onboard. But we need to act now. Every day of delay will mean more people become infected or die.’

Gov is doing nothing.