To summarize this tale of two #Covid19 types, the benign-but-fast S type and the aggressive-but-slow L type, and their different spread, disease, and demographic patterns. Because I think it's important. And it should be looked into fast. 1/N
So I've been looking into the many inconsistencies about the Covid spread, the mild flu-vs-aggressive pneumonia stories, the old-vs-young stories, but mostly I was intrigued by the geographic patterns. Like the industrial areas and trade routes in Italy.
Turns out this pattern repeats over and over again. China, Germany, France. Ports of entry, truck routes, and industrial areas seem to be the ones most hit.
Indeed #Covid19 seems to be a low-to-mid-density disease. Not much in the big cities compared to their density and the close-quarters interactions in crammed spaces like Tokyo's massively crowded public transport system.
Then there's the oddity of age patterns. It was supposed that #Covid19 is mostly a bane on the elderly, while the young continue to live their social lives to the full. 
Turns out the story of the healthy young and the ailing old is no longer so clear-cut. The aggressive type(s) start hitting the young too.
sciencenews.org/article/corona…
sciencenews.org/article/corona…
It seems like there is a visible and an invisible layer to all the dimensions of this story. And they often interact in strange ways. But mostly it's about being mobile or being stationary.
For instance, if the areas that are most hit by #Covid19 are small and mid-sized industrial areas, why are the first reported cases mostly tourists, students, and professionals? It's mostly about who's visible, and who's mobile.
That's when I remembered reading about the two types and started building a little mental model around it.
As it turns out, there are indeed two types, and they travel in different patterns, at different speeds, and in different circles: the "traveler" and the "worker".
And they came in different ways to Europe. A Chinese woman invited to a corporate workshop in Starnberg near Munich travels in different circles...
...than the estimated 100,000 Chinese workers in the food, textile, leather, or mechanics supply chain factories in the Po plain south-east of Milan. Not the Italy of the travel brochures.
So far I worked from my background knowledge. This is where I am developing hunches. Clearly they are no longer traveling in separate circles, apparently they mingle, and it's also important to note that disease expressions are probabilistic. trialsitenews.com/university-of-…
We detect mostly the aggressive L type since we are doing symptomatic testing, and the benign S type evades detection. But the observation that the S type spreads faster through the population might be our advantage, if S immunity also confers L immunity. This needs checking.
For this I've been reading science papers I had to reduce to my evolutionary game theory understanding. So if you know someone who can double-check this theory and match genetic data with geographic data, please tag them! Thanks!
@threadreaderapp unroll plz!
@threadreaderapp unroll plz!
