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1/ The US economy is imploding. That’s the message of the plunging stock market and rising jobless claims. And Washington is not doing nearly enough to stop it. Forecasts of a deep recession followed by a strong recovery are too optimistic. Here’s why:
2/ The expanding #Covid-19 quarantines and shutdowns mean the utter destruction of many of the 30 million small businesses -- restaurants, shops, hotels -- that employ 60 million people.…
3/ This mass liquidation means mass unemployment today -- and a crippled private sector tomorrow. It will take a long time for new businesses to form, raise money, grow and hire the jobless. #Depression
4/ The Senate GOP plan (pushed by @marcorubio) to give small businesses $300 billion in federally guaranteed forgivable loans -- part of a $1 trillion+ stimulus bill -- is a great start but not nearly enough.…
5/ This might be enough: Replace 80% of small-biz revenue for three months through bank loans, backed by the feds, that would be COMPLETELY FORGIVEN conditional on not laying off any workers and continuing to pay full wages, salaries, and benefits.⬇️…
6/ The sticker price is $1.2 to $1.5 trillion. But keeping workers in their jobs during the shutdown means less spending on UI, Medicaid, and food stamps. And more tax revenue from a powerful, post-virus recovery.
7/ The plan does not replace individual checks to lower-income people, expanded UI, help for some big firms, or state budget aid. America needs an all-of-the-above $2-3 trillion support plan. Preferably agreed to this weekend or next week.
Final/ We must not let a once-in-a-century pandemic create historic unemployment, destroy otherwise viable businesses, and turn a short-but-costly recession into a long #depression.
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