Interesting modeling study (pre-print) looks at social mixing patterns in Wuhan and Shanghai pre- and post- implementation of social distancing measures, and effects on coronavirus spread. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Authors find before the epidemic, on average a person in the 2 cities had contact w/15-20 others in a typical day. This dropped to ~2 after social distancing measures (quarantines, etc). The result was a sharp drop in transmission rate (R0), from 2.0-3.5, to below 1.
In the absence of social distancing and other measures - if people just kept going about their business normally - authors estimate 64%-92% of the population would become infected within a year's time.
The authors also look at the effect of closing schools, and conclude: "school-based policies are not sufficient to entirely prevent a #COVID19 outbreak" but they can help reduce transmission rates and therefore have a role to play to reduce impact on the health system.
