Thread by @morde

New from my lab at @Stanford, interactive modeling tool thinking about long-term #COVID19 interventions. Lifting interventions too early will likely lead to a second epidemic, but we have options to #FlattenTheCurve and #KeepItFlat. covid-measures.github.io

This was a collaborative effort by @DevinKirk @MPKain @malar0ne @jwkritchie @NicoleNovaBio @Lisa_Couper @virologisa @marissalchilds

The site hosts an RShiny app where users can vary control parameters and look at trends based on short and long term control strategies. We started from a simply SEIR framework and used parameters from the literature. Tell us what you find! (3/) covid-measures.github.io

Since we're in the Bay Area, we've been sheltering in place for a week already. People are starting to ask how long this will last. My lab wanted to look at potential long-term scenarios and help people begin to understand what we may see a few months from now. (4/)

By now, you've probably already seen a diagram like this. One of the most important steps we can all take right now is practicing social distancing. By cutting down on the number of people we interact with, we can slow down the spread of COVID-19. #FlattenTheCurve (5/)

Many of our health resources have a fixed capacity. If we have too many cases at a time, we won't be able to take care of everyone who gets sick. Hospitalizations above our limit means making hard decisions about which patients to prioritize. (6/)

pbs.org/newshour/healt…

Flattening the curve isn't the only benefit here. While some health resources have fixed limits, others may become more available over time (ventilators, PPEs). Social distancing can help delay when the number of cases peaks. Social distancing buys us time. #DelayThePeak (7/)

Labs are helping increase capacity donating supplies like PPEs and N95s. I'm grateful to the healthcare workers who are putting their lives on the line to fight #COVID19. We need to keep them safe. #GetMePPE (8/)

nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/…

#FlattenTheCurve, but also #KeepItFlat. If we lift controls too quickly, we could see a resurgence, where cases pick back up quickly. In fact, if we completely stop practicing social distancing at almost any point in this model, we risk an epidemic that overwhelms hospitals. (9/)

We also see this in history. During the 1918 flu, major cities that implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions on time were able to #FlattenTheCurve. They also lifted measures within 3-8 weeks and experienced resurgence. (10/)
doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0…

That doesn't mean we will need to stay in our houses the whole time, though. @neil_ferguson et al showed that we can keep transmission relatively low and avoid overwhelming our healthcare capacity if we use a "light-switch" approach. (11/)

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

When we're on, we go back to social distancing & cases start to decrease. When we turn it off we can back off on social distancing & make smaller adjustments. Cases will start to increase, but won't be able to grow out of control before we switch social distancing back on. (12/)

Sidebar: we're really excited that we were able to qualitatively replicate the results of the Imperial College study through a totally different modeling framework. (13/)

This is an incredibly stressful and scary time for people around the world. There’s a lot of uncertainty, but people are working together to find solutions. If we listen to the science we can both limit the impact on our lives & protect the most vulnerable among us. \end