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Let's take a theoretical approach. From DEFLATION to STAGFLATION. Or from a demand side shock to a supply side shock. The efforts of Governments may exacerbate the problem - and will bring about stagflation.... follow! @dlacalle_IA do you agree?
Corona makes Governments shut down countries. Deflationary! Businesses are affected and start to reduce output and close business. Supply reduced! Governments massively stimulates DEMAND side, which increases demand above equilibrium. NET EFFECT = HIGHER PRICES - LOWER OUTPUT!
From DEFLATION to STAGFLATION!
Dear Harald @Halsrethink Do you agree?
@Halsrethink
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
#Gold Feelings have strong impact on investors. We are in wave 2 of wave C (down). This is the hardest place to stay objective. Sentiments influenced by wave B and wave C. My approach: Observe 1) EW-structure 2) USDJPY 3) Miners 4) Silver 5) TIPS. GOLD IS ABOUT TO CRASH
#Silver neg. on Day, #GDX #Miners neg. on Day, #Bitcoin neg. on Day. Massive neg. RSI divergence on #Gold. Major turn in gold is imminent!
Why is it that everybody always panics in wave 2. Look at the structures, guys. We have seen it million times before. Same divergences, same lead from other assets, same looong turns, same sentiments. Structures - and patience!👍🙂
Read 4 tweets
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from zerohedge.com/markets/someth…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
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Trenton Gaddis
@DDGaddis
1. During the Holocaust, Jews were told if they just followed the rules, then they would be OK.

They were sent off to concentration camps & were victims of genocide.

Do you not see the ruse that is happening now? Be smart & hedge w/ cryptocurrency.

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Per Bylund
@PerBylund
Will #deflation be the end for business? Hardly. Deflation is only a problem for businesses in an inflationary economy. Sounds contradictory, but the point is that business is properly operated aimed toward (meeting or creating) the future--not to repeat but to *leverage* the
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Expected Value Macro
@EVMacro
#Stagflation 2020
US CPI coming up this week - and my expectations are for beats on Headline & Core
#Inflation
Energy is set to provide a positive contribution in this release and going forward
And food inflation is poised to accelerate as climate change is having a significant impact on harvests
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Yorick de Mombynes
@ydemombynes
My 140 favorite quotes from The Ethics of Money Production (2008), by Jörg Guido Hülsmann
1. “#Money is omnipresent in modern life, yet the production of money does not seem to warrant any moral assessment”. J.G.Hülsmann
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Simply Vertical
@Simple_Trends
Supposedly QT is tapering off. You wouldn't know it looking at this simple chart.
Balance sheet V. SPX
DXY Weekly: Going to plan, looking for another higher high. 100 area is huge.
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Seven Archangels
@realDepIorabIe
#Bring the Pain
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