Starting Day 30 of #COVID19 in Iran.
I started the threads mainly to:
1- Warn the rest of the world (early on) what was coming
2- Raise awareness on the dire situations in Iran
On the first one, whether I succeeded or not, the world has seen enough examples by now...
I started the threads mainly to:
1- Warn the rest of the world (early on) what was coming
2- Raise awareness on the dire situations in Iran
On the first one, whether I succeeded or not, the world has seen enough examples by now...
... not just from Iran, sadly now from Italy and Spain and just now in US.
On the second, situation has eased off in hotspots. If this stays and trends improves, there would be no reason to carry on - so will monitor.
Picking up from yesterday:
On the second, situation has eased off in hotspots. If this stays and trends improves, there would be no reason to carry on - so will monitor.
Picking up from yesterday:
Small-prints you have got to read:
If you remember, I estimated #COVID19 deaths in Iran around 18K (and cases around 1M based on 2% death rate), using methods that I explained.
Well, two lecturers (from MIT and Virginia Tech) used modelling techniques and came up with these estimates:
Death: 15,485
Cases: 916K
And that is until 9 days ago (my estimate was 6 days ago).
Death: 15,485
Cases: 916K
And that is until 9 days ago (my estimate was 6 days ago).
As said before, official cases are simply a factor of number of tests used, nothing more.
Head of Imam Hospital in Ardabil (564K) says the same. He states they conducted 147 CT Scan yesterday, 47 showed typical #COVID19 picture.
Head of Imam Hospital in Ardabil (564K) says the same. He states they conducted 147 CT Scan yesterday, 47 showed typical #COVID19 picture.
The economic side of #COVID19 now striking. Petrol pump owners say their customer base reduced up to 70% and soon they have no choice but to lay off staff.
Today's official data:
Cases: 35408 (+3076)
Deaths: 2517 (+139)
Recovered: 11679 (+546)
Active: 21212 (+2391)
This is again a record number of daily cases.
Cases: 35408 (+3076)
Deaths: 2517 (+139)
Recovered: 11679 (+546)
Active: 21212 (+2391)
This is again a record number of daily cases.
Instead of either shutting down the underground/metro in Tehran or just doing nothing, they reduced the service.
This has resulted in very busy coaches. Mismanagement at every level other than Iran's professional healthcare.
This has resulted in very busy coaches. Mismanagement at every level other than Iran's professional healthcare.
This is a footage of a busy Karaj-Tehran service from today:
#EXCLUSIVE some sources say number of #COVID19 tests to be released everyday to the Health Ministry is decided by IRGC - as they are in control of test kits in Iran.
Jafar Karimi, Manager for Esteftaat Council (fatwa-related) of the Supreme Leader has died of #COVID19.
This is the second death [on my count] in SL's inner circle.
This is the second death [on my count] in SL's inner circle.
Mohammad Reza Khatami, ex-President's brother, is now in hospital (and in stable condition) due to #COVID19.
He is a nephrologist himself. [and one of my lecturers in Imam Hospital in Tehram]
He is a nephrologist himself. [and one of my lecturers in Imam Hospital in Tehram]
Nader Hosseinpoor, a security guard in Pirooz hospital in Lahijan (102K), Gilan (2.5M), has died of #COVID19.
Short:
- An 8-yr-old in Jahrom (141K) hospitalised with #COVID19
- 327 doctors and nurses have had CV just in Golestan province (1.9M)
- Tehran-Mashhad train has been cancelled for the first time in 62 years due to the lack of passengers.
- An 8-yr-old in Jahrom (141K) hospitalised with #COVID19
- 327 doctors and nurses have had CV just in Golestan province (1.9M)
- Tehran-Mashhad train has been cancelled for the first time in 62 years due to the lack of passengers.
OK I had promised to write a summary of the situation in Iran.
We have had 4 phases so far:
PHASE 1: The initial cases
This started probably around 10-20 Jan with the first cases in Qom and a few patienst spotted and admitted in the hospitals. The whole thing was kept quiet.
We have had 4 phases so far:
PHASE 1: The initial cases
This started probably around 10-20 Jan with the first cases in Qom and a few patienst spotted and admitted in the hospitals. The whole thing was kept quiet.
PHASE 2: #COVID19 officially announced
Starting on Feb 20, the stablishment admitted there has been cases with positive test and they are admitted. In the first phase there were rumours and the public already knew it is only a matter of time before it gets announced.
Starting on Feb 20, the stablishment admitted there has been cases with positive test and they are admitted. In the first phase there were rumours and the public already knew it is only a matter of time before it gets announced.
During this phase Qom, the epicentre was not quarantined and cases were spread to other parts of the country. In fact it is known that many high profile citizens (and potentially carriers) were settled across the country. Deaths started across the country.
Phase 3: Carnage
This started around March 1st with overwhelmed hospitals in Qom, Gilan and later Mazandaran, Golestan and Qazvin. Hospitals had no beds, morgues full and medical staff had no PPEs in many areas. Casualties among medical staff started.
This started around March 1st with overwhelmed hospitals in Qom, Gilan and later Mazandaran, Golestan and Qazvin. Hospitals had no beds, morgues full and medical staff had no PPEs in many areas. Casualties among medical staff started.
It is not clear how many died during this phase but things looked completely hopeless. Due to lack of knowledge, many people would go about their daily life and collapse on the streets.
Complete confusion in government, no plan of action, no meaningful lockdown.
Complete confusion in government, no plan of action, no meaningful lockdown.
Phase 4: Relative stability
This started around 10 days ago (March 15). Field hospitals in Gilan and other places helped to cope, staff got more experienced, shortage of PPE for the medical staff was eased off and a level of lockdown and restriction in travel was enforced.
This started around 10 days ago (March 15). Field hospitals in Gilan and other places helped to cope, staff got more experienced, shortage of PPE for the medical staff was eased off and a level of lockdown and restriction in travel was enforced.
The country went into hibernation of Persian New Year holidays which lasts 14 days. The disease grew wider with new hotspots but the disease remained within the capacity of medical system. There was a noticeable ease in Qom, Gilan and Mazandaran although cases and deaths continue
... although not overflowing the hospitals. In some areas, the numbers are reaching just around the limit of the medical system but not surpassing (Shiraz, Mashhad, Tehran, Isfahan).
If things stay like this, perhaps we can expect a decline in 3 weeks. But I cannot be too...
If things stay like this, perhaps we can expect a decline in 3 weeks. But I cannot be too...
...optimistic since by various accounts we have had only 1-2M cases. For an "Herd Immunity" with 60% infection rate and population of 80M, we have a long way to go.
Some fear that a second wave is around the corner. But admittedly it has not come yet and might never come.
Some fear that a second wave is around the corner. But admittedly it has not come yet and might never come.
So overall we have two scenarios in front of us in the next 3 weeks:
- After the holidays are over, we go into a wider second wave which will be dangerous.
- We carry on and see a gradual fall of cases after 3 weeks.
I know which one I would prefer.
Good night and stay safe.
- After the holidays are over, we go into a wider second wave which will be dangerous.
- We carry on and see a gradual fall of cases after 3 weeks.
I know which one I would prefer.
Good night and stay safe.
Thread continues here:
