Thread by @Norlaine

People (particularly journalists) are worked up b/c they feel they need access to the gov't #COVID19 projections. The gov't and PM have said their models are imperfect and everything is changing rapidly. What possible good would making the projections public serve? #cdnpoli 1/4

They are just projections. There are many factors that could impact actual outcomes over which the government has no control. Several scenarios come to mind with respect to releasing theoretical models to the public... 2/4

The first is mass panic, if worst-case scenario models are heavily publicised. The second is people taking greater risks and disregarding safeguards if best case scenarios are publicised. Both of these are extremely undesireable outcomes. 3/4

The third, almost a certainty, is that these same journalists will blame the government if reality does not match whatever model was revealed. There is no good reason to make the models public, and some fairly compelling reasons not to. 4/4