A thread on what I think @realDonaldTrump needs to do next in the battle against #coronavirus and the Great Depression we're risking as a result. Not that anyone asked me, but at this point I could be at least as right as Fauci-Birx hasn't been so far.
Leaders make mistakes. Even the great ones. But what makes them great is learning from the mistakes that have already been made. Rather than repeating them, or doubling-down on them.
The combination of the death/socio-economic toll may already have #coronavirus on track to be the worst domestic calamity in our nation since the Civil War. And we've probably not been more divided/polarized as a people since that era, either.
In the early months of the Civil War, McClellan looked like a capable commanding general. He won some early battles and prepped the Union Army for battle. But as the Civil War entered its second year, it became more and more obvious that once the enemy evolved he could not.
Morale and confidence sunk as a result. McClellan also found the president to be beneath him when it came to expertise, and loathed taking military advice from a politician. This often made him slow to act, and put the Union behind the curve.
Does any of that sound familiar? After Antietam, the bloodiest battle in U.S. history, Lincoln had finally had enough. McClellan failed to pursue Lee and allowed him to escape and potentially prolong the war. Lincoln finally made the move he probably should've already made.
I think it's time for Trump to do what took Lincoln too long. It's clear his current task force, particularly Fauci and Birx, are behind the very curve they're trying to flatten.
Fauci has given four different "expert" opinions on SARS-2 since January. Ranging from a Frank Drebin "nothing to see here" to a Denathorian "run for your lives." And he now says he's not sure he can trust the models he's been using to justify shutting down our way of life.
He's also pulled a couple of McClellan-like antics, like his immediate skepticism of Hydroxychloroquine when Trump first mentioned it. And then this week bragging he talked the president out of his hopes of resurrecting the country around Easter.
Three weeks ago, Birx was all-in on the now "revised" Imperial College apocalyptic simulation. Then last week was calling BS on doomsday simulations. And now is scolding us for not stopping them from being fulfilled.
Meanwhile, counter-experts at renowned universities such as Yale, Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, and Oxford have seemingly been ignored. Columns from experts calling for some sanity here, even in publications like NY Times, Washington Post, and USA Today, are seemingly ignored.
It seems as if Fauci-Birx made a tactical error here -- trusting the original data from WHO/China (which we should view as one entity), and only acting upon the most dire of models without vetting contrarian analysis.
Both of these errors have now put us behind the curve they told us to flatten three weeks ago. A curve they're now telling us has yet to arrive, although they can't tell us what event has occurred while we're in quarantine the past 3 weeks that would cause it.
Our premise was flawed from the beginning. And I don't necessarily blame them for it. This is an extraordinary circumstance. However, I do think we should blame them for not evolving here. Instead, they're lecturing us and doubling down.
We are not your patients, we are the people, and this is a government by and for the people. And outside of New York City and a few other hot spots getting creamed, the only impact this virus has made on most of America is the loss of freedom and skyrocketing unemployment claims.
We are paying the freight. We deserve better and real answers we're not getting. Inspire us, don't lecture us. Inform us with real data, not just more charts and take your word for it.
It is time for Trump to reboot his task force. Add more diversity of scientific opinion and practice wisdom in a multitude of council. And also broaden its horizons to confront the broader socio-economic challenges, as my friend Congressman @chiproytx wrote today.
It's clear two options aren't realistic -- acting like it's just a bad flu season, or hiding in our homes until there's a vaccine. We may never have one, but have civil unrest if not societal ruin long before. So we need a third way.
That third way is how did previous generations industrialize America, and win two world wars despite the far more vicious polio virus? Ironically, much of what it takes to make that happen is sitting at home on the couch right now.
Even during the Spanish Flu epidemic a century ago, they still played college football games. We won't even let folks go to the dentist. This is not only unrealistic, it's dumb.
Trump needs to reboot his task force into the new Manhattan Project, and failure is not an option anymore then is just Netflix and chill until the civil unrest starts. And the first priority of that project is the securing and acquiring of our own clean data.
We have a better healthcare system than the rest of the world. We aren't Italy and Spain. Nor is the data from WHO/China trustworthy. We must lead the way. But that's okay, because that's what we've always done. And the world has been better for it.
Where is our antibody data? Where is the random sampling? Where is our patient zero? When did the curve we're trying to flatten start? Why are we modeling the whole country after New York City's unique demographics/living conditions, and just prorating that scenario?
Why isn't there a priority being placed on studying the asymptomatic to truly know how infectious they are, what dangers are still posed to them, and how widespread they are? For we need answers to those questions to truly get our way of life back.
President Trump, most Americans outside Twitter and the WH press corps want you to win this battle -- because that means they win, too. But are Fauci-Birx your McClellan or your Grant?
