Thread by @evacool_

#ISIS_Comeback
The Islamic State published a new video a few days ago, entitled "Smite at the necks", through which it documented the organization's attacks within the Iraqi geography in the so-called battle of attrition which began two and a half years ago.1/15
#ISIS #USA #Iraq

This video carried many messages to us as researchers in the affairs of jihadist groups, which I will present in the form of points that may clarify the scene further to the reader on what is going on in #Iraq in particular and what may happen later.2/15
#ISIS #USA #Trump #PMU

First, the organization, through this video, tried to confirm the strength of its network, the strength of its institutions, and its ability to rise once, twice, three times, which was presented by recalling the period between 2009 and 2013.3/15
#ISIS #USA #PMU #Iraq #Syria

Second, through the video, we are able to apprehend the extent of the media blackout by the official Iraqi media, and even Western media, about the size of the organization’s attacks, which amounted to 3196 in Iraq alone.4/15
#ISIS #USA #Iraq #PMU #Syria

Third, the video reveals the expansion of the organization’s attacks at the present time, which includes Iraqi geography from north to south, contrary to what some official Iraqi media are trying to present, that #ISIS is spread only in the Sunni areas.5/15
#Iraq #USA #PMU

Fourth, to those who follow up on jihadist groups in #Iraq, it can be said that this release confirms that the ascent stage of the organization began, that is, we are like at the end of 2012, a year before the organization took control of the city of #Mosul.6/15
#ISIS #USA #PMU

Fifth, the organization notes in the video a weakness with regard to military equipment such as thermal shields and 23 mm artillery, while this equipment is present in abundance with the organization in #Syria.7/15
#ISIS #USA #Iraq #PMU

And in reading between the lines of this release, the current scheme on which the organization is currently working is rearranging their priorities, which are within the following order:
8/15
#ISIS #USA #Trump #EU #Iraq #Iran #IRGC #PMU #Syria

First, the Sunnis of #Iraq, where the organization operates within the principle of intimidation by killing and threatening tribal leaders and Sunni mayors who are cooperating with the Iraqi government and the international coalition on the one hand…
9/15

… and exhortation by exploiting the injustice and persecution against the Sunnis of #Iraq by the Iraqi government, the #PMU and the international coalition, since hundreds of thousands of them still live in camps without basic services.10/15

Secondly, the #PMU. The latest release showed a number of attacks on the PMU’s convoys, barracks, and soldiers; however the current policy of the organization is monitoring the instability within the PMU, esp. after Soleimani’s assassination.11/15

Third, the American and coalition forces. It can be said that the American forces are not a top priority for the organization in the current stage for two reasons:
12/15
#USA #InternationalCalition #Trump #Irap #Iran #IRGC

The first is that the organization sees the American bases as a wasp's nest, and therefore targeting them might re-activate a massive military operation that will cause human and military losses. And #ISIS is not ready for it now.13/15

Second, it is latest – successful in my opinion - US strategy of redeployment of American forces from numerous bases spread that are difficult to protect and strike to large and few well-protected bases.14/15

https://twitter.com/evacool_/status/1241144176449933312

Conclusion: It is certain that we are a few months before a new rise of #ISIS, so using the same wrong strategy over and over and expecting different results is unacceptable naivety.15/15
#USA #Trump #Iraq #Syria #PMU #Iran #IRGC #EU