Thread by @CantillonCH

1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning

2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!

3/If that was all a bit rushed, here follow the notes I sent to accompany our chat:-

#macro, #markets

4/First up,#Growth as the 'promise of jam tomorrow', #Value as 'empty jam-jars today'. US flavours of both are rich to ROW.

5/Bonds have their own issues. #centralbanks have made them into Hemingway Certificates: first, you'll go broke slowly: then, all at once.

6/And you may think #gold is a place to hide but it's partly an opportunity cost story (with a dash of safe haven thrown in) and partly a bet on prices rising more rapidly again in future. Bullish charts, but don't forget 'prices rising' means OTHER #commodities rise, too.

7/Overall, relative to trend, #stocks and #bonds are in line with one another: #Growth is obviously a tad rich: #Value a touch cheap.
Not much there to get your teeth into, so let's pan out a touch:-

8/#equities are obviously w-a-y ahead of #commodities but, remember, even $FB & $GOOG need revenues from businesses toiling down in the engine room of economic life; even $AMZN needs other buyers & sellers. #Tech cannot live forever by stealing everyone else's shrinking lunch-box

9/#Bonds, too, are off the chart v their traditional Nemesis, #commodities, but -support from #Fed #ECB et al aside- they're being carried on increasingly stretched balance sheets: the one saving grace being the deposit war-chest stockpiled on the other side of the T-account.

10/TL:DR(a) if #Growth chasers are correct, #Value must eventually regain ground; that puts a floor under #commodities; takes some wind out of #gold's sails; obviates extreme #CB measures & so leaves bonds exposed.
#Robinhood can't KEEP taking from the poor & giving to the rich

11/TL:DR(b) OTH, if the #Growth mania IS just another speculative bubble (I couldn't possibly comment), once it exhausts, it should lead the subsequent downdraft.
As for #inflation? #Supply outages v #demand lack; Govt prodigals v the private prudent; #debt v depos, are the keys.

Something like this:-
$QQQ $SPY $SPYG $IVW