π₯ Russian physicists don't have enough money to buy out the sales of foreigners. Therefore, fall may continue, the source of the RDV believes.
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π·πΊ πͺπΊ πΊπΈ Relations between #Russia and the West are now at the bottom since the Caribbean crisis. And at such a moment, it is difficult for a Western fund manager to explain to his investors why he continues to hold $SBER, $TCSG, or something else from Russia. $RTSI
Think π
#Sberbank:
β’ Foreign funds own about $30 bn worth of shares, or 40-45% of all shares.
β’ All retail investor now have $30 bn in all Russian stocks.
β’ That is, Russian retail investor will buy out $SBER foreign sales ONLY if they sell all other shares combined.
#Tinkoff:
β’ In $TCSG shares, foreign funds hold $7 bn of positions β about 50% of all shares.
β’ For comparison, for the whole of 2021, retail investor invested the same $7 bn in Russian stocks.
βοΈ Russian stocks will continue to fall as long as foreign funds are being sold. βοΈ
β’ β’ β’
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β How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?
Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.
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π·πΊπ¨π³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself. 1/3
πΊπΈπ #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Ryabkov speaks at the Valdai discussion club:
β’ European security situation is critical.
β’ #USA and #NATO are trying to isolate convenient points from #Russia's proposals for security guarantees.
β’ Security talks were helpful.
β’ Issue of security guarantees is urgent. We expect to receive an answer soon.
β’ #Russia doesn't intend to change disposition of its military forces near #Ukraine.
β’ We look forward to continuing the dialogue with #USA.
β’ #Sanctions don't work and won't lead to policy change.
β’ The #UnitedStates is deliberately heating up the situation by announcing existing scenarios for responding to #Russia's "invasion" of #Ukraine.
β’ Moscow calls on the West to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. This poses a threat to Russia's security. #RussiaInvadedUkraine
After start of development of global environmental agenda, not only GreenTech companies, but also suppliers of raw materials for them, have risen in price. Development of #EV, #solarpanels, windmills and batteries required a large amount of raw materials.
Atom will be perceived on a par with other green technologies. This means that world will need more fuel for #nuclearpower plants - #uranium. Market can value its miners on par with lithium miners.
On sidelines and in society, they are discussing that a war may start in #Ukraine, and the #Fed will raise rates ahead of time. How will this end for the markets?
Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX
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Judging by experience of falls of past years, Russian market may fall by another 30% -50% from current levels.
β’ 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
β’ 2014 - by 50%
β’ 2020 - by 50%
Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains. 2/
Growth of quotations this week is unlikely:
β’ Quadruple witching - expiration of futures and options can become a point of trend reversal (as it was in March 2020).
π΅ Wednesday: Fed meeting. If #Fed announces acceleration of monetary tightening, it could collapse markets.
3/
Scholz's "Petersburg connections" and the SPD.
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#SPD in #Hamburg has strong ties with #Russia and, in particular, with #StPetersburg. In 2012, Henning Voscherau became chairman of BoD of South Stream Transport AG, #Gazprom's project to build the South Stream gas pipeline bypassing #Ukraine, which was never implemented. #ONGT
Scholz was in contact with politicians and businessmen from Petersburg. He visited city more than once, including in 2016 to participate in German-Russian forum "Petersburg Dialogue". In summer of 2017, when Hamburg hosted #G20 summit, Scholz met with Russian President #Putin.