Kyle Orton Profile picture
Oct 13 73 tweets 52 min read
Thread: 13 October 2022: Day 232 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Cretinous. #France's President Macron playing into #Russia's propaganda about "World War [Three]".
In an interview on "France 2", #France's President Macron said French "vital interests ... would not be at stake if there was a nuclear ballistic attack in Ukraine or in the region" by #Russia. politico.eu/article/france…
It is very unclear why Macron felt the need to tell #Putin's government what #France would *not* do in response to the use of nuclear weapons, and this dismissal of "the region", which includes multiple #NATO states, is hardly reassuring either.
#pt: Macron's silliness today over "World War Three" comes less than a week after #Biden's ill-considered "Armageddon" remarks. Needless assistance to #Russia at a moment when the only concern should be pressing #Ukraine's (and our) advantage.
Interesting on #Iran's drones being used by #Russia against #Ukraine
The libertarians continue not being very tightly wrapped
A look by @leventkemaI and @ragipsoylu at the situation in #Russia's Caucasus, where (mostly Muslim) populations of Chechens, Dagestanis, Circassians, and others are being recruited for the war on #Ukraine, induced with cheques and terrorised by Kadyrov. middleeasteye.net/news/russia-uk…
Good for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ("AOC"), honestly, confronting the crackpotted (and rude) Gabbard wing of the party that wants the Democrats to overtly support #Russia's war on #Ukraine.
Rateb Jneid, president of the Australian Federation of Islamic Councils, doubles down on his "democratic right" to host #Russia's ambassador during this war to liquidate #Ukraine's democratic state. The Greens all-in, too. The Black and the Red, as ever.
#Turkey's ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan met #Belarus' nominal ruler Alexander Lukashenko in Astana today
During the Oct. 13 meeting in Kazakhstan between the rulers of #Turkey and #Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested this was about discussing "a fair peace", while Putin's Kremlin said, "The topic of a Russian-Ukrainian settlement was not discussed". rferl.org/a/erdogan-call…
Pretty unhinged: a #Russian man - a single father, with four children - was arrested, sentenced to 15 days in prison, and fined 50,000 rubles [US$800] for listening to Ukrainian music in his car.
From days into #Russia's full-scale invasion, #Ukraine's President Zelensky has been asking the #US for fighter jets and longer-range drones, and the Biden team keeps resisting because of its ludicrous fear of "escalation".
Even #Russia's ability to attack #Ukraine's civilians is quite limited: "… questions over how many missiles Russia has left … The missiles 'are being produced. But in single units. And the old reserves are running out,' one state official said." washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/…
The entire Bakhmut sector is a fiasco for #Russia
Elon Musk's behaviour has not been very reassuring of late. At best, it shows an unstable person, and some of the other explanations are much worse.
Elon Musk says 20,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals have been sent to #Ukraine, at a cost by the end of the year of $100m, but in September Musk's SpaceX wrote to the Pentagon saying this must end, asking DoD to take over funding the program. edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/pol…
Thread on a statement from #NATO Secretary-General @jensstoltenberg: sending winter clothes and medical supplies to #Ukraine, jammers to use against #Iran's drones that have been given to #Russia, dire response to nukes, and increasing weapons production.
Stanislav Bogdanov, a criminal responsible for a brutal murder of a judge, was freed since he participated in #Russia's war on #Ukraine, and even seems to have received a state award.
There's a write-up of the Stanislav Bogdanov case - the sentencing that took into account the cruelty of the crime, the recruitment into the "Wagner Group" that gained him amnesty, etc. - here: censor.net/ru/photo_news/…
General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, specifically mentions #Israel's air defence systems as capable of helping #Ukraine, clearly hoping to pressure Jerusalem on this matter.
An account of #Russian messaging about the Kerch Bridge explosion
A group of mobiks (mobilised #Russian "soldiers") explain being recruited in late September and sent, after three days, into #Ukraine, with a rifle and nothing else - no training, no food, no water. They surrendered at the first Ukrainian checkpoint.
Given that #Russia's leadership already believes it is at war with #NATO, and the theatre just happens to be #Ukraine, this exquisite concern about "playing into that narrative" or whatever is mad.
An adviser to #Ukraine's President subtweets #Israel about the lack of cooperation given #Iran's flagrant involvement assisting #Russia's war.
Yesterday, Putin's lead propagandist Vladimir Solovyov voiced - once again - the view that #Russia is fighting #NATO in Ukraine, a perception broadly shared in the Russian elite. Solovyov, though, unusually, seems to have some doubts about the wisdom.
#Russian anti-war activist Denis Zakharov arrested in Moscow.
.@AP report on "#Russia's open effort to adopt #Ukrainian children and bring them up as Russian" - a flat breach of the Genocide Convention. Thousands of Ukrainian children have been effectively abducted, some used in Russian propaganda. apnews.com/article/ukrain…
Rare that one gets sense from Brussels officials: "A #Russian nuclear strike against #Ukraine would trigger 'such a powerful [military] answer' from the West that the Russian army would be 'annihilated,' said Josep Borrell, the #EU's foreign policy chief" euronews.com/my-europe/2022…
Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the US stepping up air defences to #Ukraine after the missiles and drones this week from #Russia. Even so, despite the gaps, "Ukrainian patchwork air defenses have proved to be one of the great successes of the war" nytimes.com/2022/10/12/wor…
#pt: "a senior Ukrainian official … said that #Israel was providing #Ukraine with basic intelligence about #Iranian drones, which #Russia has begun to use on the battlefield, and that a private Israeli firm was providing Ukraine with satellite imagery of Russian troop positions"
Cargo trucks going onto the #Crimea Bridge are held up in long queues, and hundreds of cargo trucks waiting at the airport to be transferred into #Russia ... are still waiting. The security screenings seem to have gotten serious after the Oct. 8 bombing.
Can't tell if related to an uptick in deaths of mobilised Russians as they reach the front, if a lot of bodies were shipped back in a batch, or some media restriction-related thing, but Oct. 13 seemed to have a lot of reporting on deceased mobiks.
Extraordinary work and for a good cause
"#Israel's Iron Dome air defense, which boasts a 90 percent success rate against rockets fired against it, will stay out of #Ukraine's reach, experts said, as Jerusalem seeks to maintain strategic relations with #Russia in #Syria" washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/…
"Provided by the U.S. and operated by Ukrainian soldiers since June, ... 16 HIMARS helped [Kyiv's] troops this summer halt a bloody Russian advance [in Donbas]" and seized back much of Kharkiv. "Washington recently pledged to deliver another 18 HIMARS". wsj.com/articles/himar…
#pt: "#HIMARS are responsible for 70% of military advances on the #Kherson front, the unit's commander, Lt. Valentyn Koval, said. The four vehicles in his unit have killed hundreds of Russians and destroyed about 20 antiaircraft batteries, he said."
#US Defense Secretary suggests that #Russia will not be getting a break through the winter: #Ukraine will press on
Has intrigued me a lot since it became clear how misinformed #Russia's leadership was about the state of its Army - the parallels with #China. My hunch is there is an analogous situation, but data is pretty difficult to get at, maybe impossible.
#Slovakia emerging as an important node in the Alliance system
The "Freedom of Russia Legion" has drawn in many #Russians who have made the connection between liberating #Ukraine from Putinism and doing the same at home. Lot of interesting details on FSB efforts against them, the future of the Russian state, etc.
#Finland's government has been very clear-eyed on the situation with #Russia (for good and obvious reasons; same as Poland and the Baltic states).
Potential first official confirmation of #Russian mobiks being killed in #Ukraine
#Estonia's Prime Minister clear that the path to peace is #Russia's defeat, as swiftly as possible.
"#Putin … told … Erdogan … Moscow would consider developing a 'gas hub' in #Turkey, with Russia's supplies to Europe disrupted by … sanctions and leaks at key pipelines. 'Turkey has turned out to be the most reliable route for deliveries today, even to Europe'." - @AFP
"#Russian military units in some areas, particularly in #Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to temporarily stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13." kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/…
Even prominent pro-war voices outraged by the returning dead mobiks in #Russia, and the conditions they have been sent to #Ukraine under.
The head of the #Russia-installed regime in #Kherson has called for Moscow to pull "civilians" out of the zone, which looks like a covert way of beginning an evacuation of the collaborationist system.
#Russia's mobilised conscripts have attached explosive reactive armour. ERA would usually be attached to a tank; on this vehicle, it would simply kill everyone inside once hit.
Interesting that it seems to be so "normalised": the #Russians know what to do to surrender, and the #Ukrainians are comfortable in how to take them in.
#Belarus reportedly to begin a mobilisation of its own, following its #Russian overlord.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky speaks with #German reporters about the way #Russia operates and will try to utilise the gas weapon this winter, says European journalists should be speaking about this now so it will be understood when Moscow acts.
Amnesty International with another bizarrely #Russia-friendly report, making demented accusations against the Baltic states in general and #Latvia in particular, as if the issue of protecting the frontiers during a total war on the borders is illegitimate.
Another sign that #Russia's occupation regime in #Kherson is faltering.
Shelling by #Ukraine blew up an ammunition depot in a village in the Belgorod region inside #Russia on Oct. 13. timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…
#PLO leader Mahmud Abbas met #Putin in Kazakhstan, said the Palestinians "don't trust America" but are "completely satisfied" with "#Russia [which] stands by justice and international law". reuters.com/world/palestin…
#pt: Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), the current #PLO ("Palestinian Authority") chairman, was a #KGB agent and handled the finances for the operation that massacred the #Israeli athletes at Munich. So, not surprising Abbas is pro-Russia. kyleorton.substack.com/p/why-putins-r…
#pt: Over the last half-decade, the #PLO chairman Mahmud Abbas has been openly trying to increase #Russia's role in former Mandate Palestine at the expense of the US. One of the things #Putin pushed for was unity between the PLO and #Iran's terrorists. aijac.org.au/featured/russi…
#Russia: at every one of the 20 mobilisation centres in Moscow, an Orthodox priest is present in a designated area with icons and prayer books, to take confessions of mobiks before they go to commit sins in Ukraine, and to console families of the fallen. web.telegram.org/z/#-1124038902
Nice to have some constants: Chris Murphy remains a reasonably skilled propagandist. In an era of panic about "disinformation", Murphy's blending together of truth about Iran's enemies, while never mentioning the sins of the clerical regime, might count.
Finally able to put a face to the man who has done so much good work. Do check out @UkraineAidOps and contribute if you can.
#Russia is trying to crack down on those who want to evade conscription by integrating the information systems, not only on the security side between police, traffic cops, border guards, and the FSB, but hotels and medical institutions, too.
web.telegram.org/z/#-1162061405
Natalia Loseva, deputy editor-in-chief of #Russia's state media outlet "Rossiya Segodnya", reported that the head of a government department, Alexey Martynov, was mobilised on Sept. 23, deployed to the front a few days later with no military experience, and killed on Oct. 10.
#pt: Question answered by the BBC Russian report: "On Thursday [Oct. 13], the Russian authorities reported for the first time the deaths at the front of those who were mobilised and immediately sent to fight in Ukraine."
Report some #Russian convicts mobilised into the Army and sent to #Ukraine have HIV. Seems there is not even an effort to screen for such diseases. One military commissar is quoted saying: "I don't give a fuck about HIV or no HIV, tuberculosis, scoliosis, gangrene." All will do.
UK businessman Graham Bonham-Carter arrested for allegedly helping Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska evade US sanctions news.sky.com/story/uk-busin…
90,000 #Russian troops have been "irrecoverably" lost - i.e. killed, missing, or permanently disabled - in #Ukraine, according to Russian sources, one of them in the FSB.
meduza.io/en/news/2022/1…

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More from @KyleWOrton

Oct 15
Thread: 15 October 2022: Day 234 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russian mobilised reservists have begun arriving in #Ukraine over the last two weeks with even fewer provisions than the Army. Notably, they have been buying their own body armour. Corruption and poor logistics remain central features of Russia's Army. Image
The #EU are slow-rolling plans for sanctions on #Iran over sending drones to #Russia for its war to eliminate Ukraine. reuters.com/world/exclusiv…
Read 42 tweets
Oct 15
Saddam was so self-destructively reckless: on Dec. 7, 2002, the day he was supposedly complying with UNSCR 1441 that demanded he come clean at last on the WMD, he made a speech calling for "the mujahideen" in Kuwait to join his "jihad" against the infidels news.bbc.co.uk/hi/arabic/news…
Incidentally, the speech was framed by Saddam as an apology to Kuwait (at last) for ransacking and massacring the country in 1990-91, but the Kuwaiti government correctly saw it as incitement to terrorism, against them and against the Coalition troops.
In the days after 9/11, when even Col. Qaddafi and the mullahs in Iran made a public show of sending condolences to America, Saddam overtly, repeatedly taunted the US:
1. edition.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/eur…
2. edition.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/mea…
Read 4 tweets
Oct 14
Thread: 14 October 2022: Day 233 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update covers the Bakhmut front in the Donetsk Oblast, where #Russia is trying to make advances and making little progress against #Ukraine. Image
#Russia: Sergey Kandybin, rector of an Orthodox church in the Telma in the Irkutsk area of Siberia, reported local politician Sergey Uglyanitsa to the FSB after Uglyanitsa said in confession he had lit a candle on Red Square hoping for #Ukraine's victory. news.obozrevatel.com/russia/v-rossi… Image
Read 19 tweets
Oct 12
Thread: 12 October 2022: Day 231 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Israel could help #Ukraine with air defences without even having to reassess its misguided policy of appeasing #Russia in the belief Moscow is helpful vis-a-vis Iran in Syria.
Any amount, or a retweet to spread the word, really helps
Read 43 tweets
Oct 5
Thread: 5 October 2022: Day 224 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine is advancing on both the north-east front, bearing down on the Luhansk Oblast that #Russia claimed to annex on Sept. 30, and on the southern front in Kherson.
Map of #Ukraine's recent advances, liberating a swath of territory in the southern #Kherson Oblast from #Russia's occupation.
Read 20 tweets
Oct 4
Thread: 4 October 2022: Day 223 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: on Sept. 30, #Putin signed the regular annual conscription order; these recruits are not "legally" allowed to be deployed outside of #Russia, unlike those conscripted under the mobilisation order of Sept. 21. Training, equipping, etc. all a struggle. Image
This is a terribly depressing thread on @WarintheFuture's latest article, showing that there is much less than meets the eye to #Australia's support for #Ukraine.
Read 48 tweets

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