Thread by @KumarSeshadri

In five years, #JoeBiden will likely get the #NobelPeacePrize. But not because he did anything proactively for peace.

It is because a #Multipolar World will be more peaceful than a unipolar one, and Biden has done more than anyone else (albeit unwittingly) to further that. (1/n)

The US-led #sanctions against #Russia in response to the #UkraineRussiaWar have forced countries around the world to abandon the US dollar as a medium of trade. This is forcing the rest of the world (non-West) together. Banning Russia from #swift was most important in this. (2/n)

#India and #China desperately need oil. Because of sanctions, Russia is providing oil at cheap rates to both. Russia has now become India's largest source of oil, displacing Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Chinese imports of Russian oil have also zoomed upwards. (3/n)

#African countries need #Wheat #barley and other grains from Russia. Russia exports many valuable minerals around the world. Russia is also a major #arms exporter to the Global South. The rest of the world cannot afford not to do business with Russia. (4/n)

But because of Western sanctions, the rest of the world cannot pay Russia in dollars because dollars are worthless to Russia. Their banks are banned from SWIFT. What to do? The only solutions are alternative reserve currencies, such as the Yuan, or trade local currencies. (5/n)

But what will Russia do with rupees from #India or yuan from #China or rupiahs from Indonesia or pounds from #Egypt? They can only use them to buy goods from those countries. This is leading to a huge reorientation of international trade. (6/n)

Russia is starting to buy huge quantities of the things it needs from the global South in exchange for the oil, wheat, manufactured goods, weapons, and minerals it is selling them. #Europe is being permanently displaced from Russian markets. (7/n)

In place of European, American, Australian, British, #Canadian, #Japanese, and #Korean goods, Russian markets will be full of Chinese, Indian, Egyptian, #SouthAfrican, and #Indonesian goods, among others from the #ThirdWorld. The West's loss will be Asia and Africa's gain. (8/n)

That's why countries of the global South are not keen on imposing economic sanctions on Russia. Western sanctions on Russia are opening up a huge opportunity for their businesses. And it's not just the Russian market, but all of #CentralAsia and Asia in general. (9/n)

Russia, #Belarus, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Uzbekistan, #Tajikistan, #Turkmenistan, #kazakhstan, #Kyrgyzstan, #Georgia, #Iran, #Turkey, #Mongolia, #Vietnam, #Cambodia, #Laos, #Bhutan, #Myanmar, #Malaysia, #Indonesia, #Syria, #SaudiArabia, #UAE, along with India and China. (10/n)

It's only a matter of time before all these countries sign a giant #freetrade / lowered tarriffs pact. A pact that cuts out the collective West. Remember, most of the world, and hence most consumers, live in these countries. (11/n)

And, of course, since the US has forbidden it, all these billions of consumers will be trading with each other without using the dollar, pound, or euro. The world will #dedollarize - thanks entirely to the decision made by Joe Biden, the US President. (12/n)

This is a good thing for the rest of the world, because the US has #weaponized the US #Dollar for the last fifty years, using its dominance to start and sustain wars all over the globe. The US finances its wars by borrowing from the world and from US citizens. (13/n)

Currently, the US #nationaldebt is $31.4 trillion. Of this, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars cost more than $2 trillion each. The US pays for this by selling US #TreasuryBonds to foreign countries. Essentially, the US gets others to finance its wars. (14/n)

This will end once the world stops using the #USDollar as the world's reserve currency. The Saudis #ksa have already started selling oil to China and are accepting payment in yuan. Other countries in the region are following suit, ending the #PetroDollar (15/n)

Without constant influx of money through sale of US Treasury bonds, the US will run out of money to start and sustain wars, and the world will become a more peaceful place. All this will become clear in the next five years. (16/n)

People will then remember the catalyst that started the whole chain reaction - the US attempt to exclude Russia from global trade -and the person responsible for that historic decision, #JoeBiden

Which is why he will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in about five years. (17/n)

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