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As #BrexitNegotiations begin, my thoughts on how it will play out: UK govt will attempt to keep lid on discussions (unsuccessfully) /1
EU side will stick to agreed guidelines and will insist on resolution of citizens' rights (nothing less than they have at the mo) and NI /2
UK govt will ask for a pause in negotiations for further consideration of objectives, attempting to include others outside govt /3
UK will then try to claim that it wants a 'straightforward' agreement, possibly on the basis of EEA-type as a transitional deal /4
A leadership contest will be triggered in Conservative party, i.e. UK govt ask for a delay to process due to circs beyond its control /5
This will be before even some of the initial points are settled, including citizens' rights /6
Though suspect that 'exit bill' will not be the major sticking point and may be agreed quickly if govt can justify the amount publicly /7
UK govt will try to running out of time by agreeing as much as possible as a transitional arrangement, but not appeasing Europhobes /8
No confidence vote in the govt (whether new leader or not) leading to fresh elections and request for delay or withdrawal of Article 50 /END
