Thread by @pmdfoster

So @theresa_may makes her big Brexit speech today - after Lancaster House, there was Florence and now this.

A few quick points of framing... 1/thread

First, consider that Florence was choreographed to the point that some on EU side said May had taken dictation, tho UK officials said it was merely 'rolling the pitch'

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/2…

Not this time... /2

In Florence recall negotiations were deadlocked on Money and ECJ.

May deliberately advanced the ball, pledging not to leave hole in current EU budget, and promising to write Citizens' Rights part of EU-UK Divorce deal directly into EU law.

This time it is different. /3

This speech is being delivered into the teeth of a howling gale.

This week's bitter row over Ireland, is the precursor to next week's row over EU holding it's own red line on Canada v Norway and cherry-picking, when Tusk releases EU27 draft guidelines on trade /4

Recall Barnier's infamous slide on UK's trading options.... /5

And consider what May said in Florence speech, which was the original elucidation of the three baskets approach.... /6

The question from the May speech is how compatible these position are.

She will promise tight (not binding we hear) alignment on key sectors - aviation, autos, pharma etc.

But the EU will want to know what about this is not cherry-picking. /7

It is true the EU doing some cherry picking of their own - essentially demanding Norway levels of safeguarding for Canada levels of access, but they hold whip hand.

The question is whether May can move needle, given cabinet constraints.

Don't hold your breath. ENDS