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Neel Kashkari @neelkashkari
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This @wsj article captures the extreme emotions around the labor market: "historic, severe worker shortages." Sounds like a real crisis. Is it?
(thread) wsj.com/articles/facin…
By several measures, wage growth remains muted (around 2.7%) - much lower than historical episodes with "extreme worker shortages." Usually the price is the best indicator between supply and demand. Price growth for labor is low. Where's the "extreme shortage?" (2)
Interestingly, the price of oil has doubled over the past few years from around $30 to $60. I haven't heard anyone declare oil "shortage." Why not? Should we tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? No because its the price responding to supply and demand. (3)
Look at the chart contained in the article itself - share of teens in the labor force or employed. This is "very dire"? Far fewer teens are choosing to be in the labor force today than 20 years ago. How many might choose to enter with higher wages? (4)
Our economists @MinneapolisFed always remind me about "sticky prices" - firms are reluctant to lower prices and wages in recessions. These hyperbolic headlines remind me the reluctance to adjust prices is in both directions. (5)
There's something very emotional for firms about wages. Paying more for oil, or steel, or corn is no big deal. That's just the market. But if they can't find workers at the wages they are used to paying, that's a historic worker shortage. (end)
Actually - one more: my take from the article is that young people have more choices today than they did 5 or 10 years ago. That's great. (really end)
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