Thread by @commondefense

Let’s talk about the Iran Deal, and why it’s viewed so differently than the negotiations with North Korea. 1/

Let’s start with some facts: the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the JCPOA, was the gold standard for arms control. There were basically no experts who thought the USA should break the deal, and not a single other country in the world who joined us in doing so. 2/

The Iran Deal accomplished most of what we’d want from a deal. Here’s some basics:

-Iran had to give up 100% (you read that right) of the fissile material it had that was usable for making nuclear weapons. So even if Iran broke the deal, they’d be starting from scratch. 3/

-Iran destroyed 100% of its advanced centrifuges, and most of it’s low-quality ones, meanings that if they broke the deal and tried to make a nuclear weapon, it would take a very long time, it would be obvious,and we’d have lots of warning. 4/

-Iran submitted to inspections by international experts. In the deal, this INCLUDES Iranian military bases.

The inspectors have not so far had any reason to inspect a military base in person, but they could, and if Iran refused, it would be Iran breaking the deal. /5

(This part is important, because Trump and the GOP have spread lots of disinformation, claiming inspectors can’t go to military bases under the deal, while Iranian leaders have not wanted inspectors to do so because it would hurt their national pride. But the deal is clear.) /6

What did Iran get in return? Lifting of economic sanctions that were crippling Iran’s economy.

Let’s talk about sanctions:
-They only work if they are imposed by lots of countries. If the USA sanctions you but China or the EU doesn’t, you just sell your oil to them instead. 7/

-Sanctions are inherently temporary. If they drag on for decades they sting less because the targeted country’s economy adapts.

-They have diminishing returns. The more you pile on, the less each new round hurts, because their economy depends on trade with you less and less. /8

So the JCPOA Iran deal was basically the best possible outcome for a good faith negotiation to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program using peaceful methods like economic sanctions.

The deal was possible because dozens of countries, including basically all the major economic powers, all participated in sanctions of Iran. Just US sanctions aren’t enough leverage without China and the EU.

And all those sanctions snap back if Iran cheats.

Can you list lots of things you could demand Iran ALSO have conceded (like missiles or funding for terrorist groups)? Sure. But the deal wasn’t *about* those things, because (and this is important) the *sanctions* by all the other countries weren’t related to those things.

And nothing about the Iran deal was stopping us from continuing to use diplomacy to pressure Iran on these other issues. If anything, the deal helped because it showed Iran that the US was willing to deal in good faith, and made Iran more connected to the global economy.

But now Trump has broken our end of the deal, while simultaneously seeking a deal with North Korea.

It’s hard to imagine what a deal with North Korea would look like that would be better than the deal we had with Iran.

And the US is going into negotiations with North Korea with a FAR weaker hand than it had with Iran.

-North Korea already HAS nukes, it isn’t just *trying* to build them.

-North Korea’s economy has been isolated so long more sanctions won’t do much.

Diplomacy with North Korea is absolutely essential, and the Iran deal proves it can work, if we let it.

But it’s remarkable how Trump could tear up a deal with Iran right when he’s trying to forge a deal like it with North Korea.