Thread by @jseldin

NEW: Just released @UN report warns of "heightened threats emerging" from #ISIS #alQaida affiliated groups worldwide

"This is especially true in parts of West and East #Africa" per the report, based on member state intelligence

In West/East #Africa, affiliates of #ISIS #alQaida "can boast gains in supporters and territory under threat, as well as growing capabilities in fundraising & weapons, for example, in the use of drones" per the @UN report

#ISIS in #Syria "has evolved into an entrenched insurgency, exploiting weaknesses in local security to find safe havens & targeting forces engaged in counter-ISIL operations" per the @UN report

#ISIS - #Iraq

"Attacks in #Baghdad in January & April 2021 underscore the group’s resilience despite heavy counter-terrorism pressure from Iraqi authorities" per new @UN report

Intel from @UN member states finds significant decline in #ISIS finances

ISIS now thought to have btw $25 million & $50 million, down from hundreds of millions of dollars just a few years ago

Terrorist financial networks, financiers "continue to operate despite int'l efforts to locate and eliminate their activities through the pressure of sanctions" per the @UN report

NEW: Growing questions about #alQaida leader Ayman al-#Zawahiri

@UN report concludes his status "is unknown"

"If alive, several Member States assess that he is ailing, leading to an acute leadership challenge for #alQaida"

MORE: This past March, the coordinator of the @UN
#ISIS/AQ monitoring group said #alQaida leader Ayman al-#Zawahiri was "probably still alive" but in ill health

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1370035955743260672?s=20

Also in March, #alQaida's media wing, as-Sahab Media, released a video featuring an audio recording of #Zawahiri

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1370455693170511873?s=20

But analysts like @AEI's @KatieZimmerman & @Valens_Global's @DaveedGR told @VOANews at the time that the March video raised questions...

#alQaida - #Syria

#AQ aligned groups "continue to dominate the #Idlib area in the north-west region of the Syrian Arab Republic, where terrorist fighters number more than 10,000" per the @UN report

#ForeignFighters from #alQaida #ISIS in #Syria could be on the move, per @UN report

Intel suggests only "limited relocation" so far

But states "concerned abt the possibility of such movement, in particular to #Afghanistan, should the environment there become more hospitable"

#ISIS leadership in #Syria #Iraq suffering from attrition

Leader Amir Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-#Mawla (aka Au Ibrahim al-Hashimi al #Qurashi) "remains reluctant to communicate directly with supporters" per @UN report

#ISIS "command and control over its provinces has loosened" per @UN report "...although it still functions in terms of the provision of guidance & some financial support"

#ISIS regional structure appear to be strengthening, per @UN report

"...such as those in West #Africa & the #Sahel region, East and Central Africa, #Afghanistan & South #Asia"

#ISIS, though, not giving up on #Syria #Iraq

Intel agencies say ISIS "will continue to prioritize consolidating & resurging in its core area, encouraged by the political difficulties that inhibit stabilization and recovery in both countries" per @UN report

MORE: #alQaida leader Ayaman al-#Zawahiri likely "alive but unwell" per @UN member state intel

UN report confirms Zawahiri's likely successor, Saif al-Adel, is in #Iran

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1357749527445450757?s=20

MORE: "The leadership succession calculations of #alQaida are complicated by the peace process in #Afghanistan" @UN report cautions

MORE: "It is unclear whether Sayf-Al Adl [Saif al-Adel] would be able to travel to #Afghanistan to take up the position of leader of #alQaida" per @UN "Some Member States point to his history of living & operating in #Africa & assess that he might choose to base himself there"

NEW: #Africa now the region most impacted by terrorism per @UN terror monitoring team report

"...in which the largest numbers of casualties inflicted by groups designated under Security Council resolution 1267 (1999) occurred" per the report

This warning from the @UN is consistent with what the US & its allies, and the Global Coalition to Defeat #ISID have been saying:
voanews.com/africa/terrori…

#Africa-terror

"Instances of contagion from #Mali into #BurkinaFaso, #CôtedIvoire, the #Niger & #Senegal & incursions from #Nigeria into #Cameroon, #Chad & the #Niger, from #Somalia into #Kenya & from #Mozambique into the United Republic of #Tanzania are all concerning" per @UN

NEW: @UN member states identify "growing threat' from #ISIS #alQaida in #Morocco

Report cites April 2021 op by US & Morocco to dismantle a cell "directed by #ISIL leaders to target Moroccan forces on the eastern border"

.@UN report also notes arrest of 2 #ISIS supporters in #Morocco in June, including a returnee from #Syria

Per UN, of the 1,654 Moroccans who joined ISIL or #alQaida in Syria/#Iraq:
- 700 are believed dead
- 241 detained
- 269 returned to Morocco

#Algeria at risk from #ISIS #alQaida #foreignfighter returnees, per @UN

140 Algerians (inclu 95 dual nationals) who joined #ISIS or #alQaida "remain active abroad" per report "There remains a risk of returnees infiltrating from the South"

#Libya - once part of #ISIS plans to establish a southern caliphate, some intel agencies says it appears to be feeding ISIS groups elsewhere, sending 200 fighters to the #Sahel region at the end of April

ISIS core may also be funding activity in Libya, per @UN report

#Libya proving to be fertile ground for #alQaida #AQIM

"AQIM has become a logistics platform for alQaida affiliates in Mali, with the Fazzan area in the south-west continuing as the strategic crossroad for supplying other groups" per @UN report

#ISIS - #Egypt

ISIS affiliate Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis believed to have 800-1,200 fighters, per @UN report

NEW: #BokoHaram "significantly weakened" BUT not all intel agencies are convinced leader Abubakar #Shekau is dead

"Some Member States believe that Shekau may have escaped from the #Sambisa Forest" per @UN terror report

More: regardless of #Shekau's status, #BokoHaram is "under heavy pressure from this [#ISIS-West Africa] offensive enabled by infiltrators & defectors" per @UN report

#ISIS-West Africa has estimated 3,000-5,000 fighters in the #LakeChad basin & "is expected to seek to extend its area of operations towards #Maiduguri, #Nigeria" per @UN terror monitoring team

ISIS-West Africa also targeting "foreign interests specifically" on the #Niger border

NEW: #JNIM looking to expand territorial control in #Mali w/"the support of #alQaida core" per @UN member state intel agencies

NEW: #alShabaab "exploiting the security vacuum created by the preoccupation of Somali security forces with pre-election violence" per @UN

In southern, central #Somalia Shabaab "encountered little resistance in capturing several towns...in areas that had previously been hostile"

MORE: "The #UnitedStates military withdrawal and the partial drawdown of the African Union Mission in #Somalia left Somali special forces struggling to contain #alShabaab without strategic support" per @UN member state intel

NEW: #alShabaab "has significantly increased its use of drones to conduct reconnaissance flyovers & record the activities of security forces" per @UN member state intel

Some intel agencies fear #Shabaab may soon start weaponizing the drones

More: Intel agencies sounding alarms abt #alShabaab plans "to target low-flying aircraft within Somali airspace and along the border between #Kenya & #Somalia, which is an important corridor for humanitarian flights & the main route for commercial aircraft landing in Somalia"

#ISIS Central #Africa Province (#ISCAP) attracting new recruits w/"promises of loans, employment and community" per @UN report

Leadership hails mostly from #Tanzania, members from #Burundi, #DRC #Kenya

Raises money from "the informal & illegal economy" per member state intel

MORE: @UN member states estimate #ISCAP has collected $1-$2 million, plus ID cards, passports, by looting area banks, per @UN report

ISCAP also adept w/dhows, speedboats to plunder at sea

.@UN member states assess #ISCAP now a "major threat" given the lack of CT pressure, w/potential to "develop further, possibly west or north into the United Republic of #Tanzania"

Getting propaganda support from #ISIS core

#ISIS "remains active in wide swathes of the #Syria|n Arab Republic, where the group is seeking to rebuild its combat capabilities & complete its shift to an insurgency" per @UN terror report

Per @UN member state intel, #ISIS "has the intent and capability to sustain a long-term insurgency in the #Syrian desert (#Badiyah)" per the report

#Idlib #Syria "remains a strategic location for #ISIL fighters & family members, in particular as a gateway to #Turkey" per @UN member state intel

Report notes Turkish forces have been arresting #ISIS member tryin to cross the border, hide in #Hatay province

Other #Syria terror groups:

#HTS - approx 10,000 fighters

#ETIM/Turkistan Islamic Party (#TIP) -1,500 -3,000 fighters in #Idlib

#ISIS reasserting itself in #Iraq, per @UN member state intel

ISIS "likely to continue attacking civilians & other soft targets in the capital whenever possible to garner media attention and embarrass the Government of Iraq" per report

#ISIS in #Iraq "continues to threaten road links among Diyala, Salah al-Din and Kirkuk Governorates" per @UN report

Cites "repeated roadside bomb attacks" on roads to #Kirkuk, #Tikrit #TuzKhurmatu

"Such attacks indicate that some #ISIL fighters remain sheltered in the #Hamrin mountain range & continue to exploit security gaps & inefficient security coordination in some areas of these governorates" per @UN report

#Terror - #Yemen

Questions remain about the status of #AQAP leader Khalid Batarfi but AQAP "remains the most combat-ready terrorist group in Yemen" per @UNHCRIraq

#ISIS "weak by comparison" per member state intel, w/maybe a few hundred fighters

INTERESTING: friction between #ISIS #alQaida & criminal networks in #Europe

"Extremists in one large city were denied access to black market arms by criminals" who did not want to be seen as facilitators, per @UN report

"They refused to sell at double the asking rate"

#Afghanistan - #alQaida

AQ "present in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the eastern, southern & south-eastern regions" per @UN report

alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent (#AQIS) "operates under #Taliban protection from #Kandahar, #Helmand & #Nimruz Provinces"

#ISIS-#Khorasan "has prioritized the recruitment & training of new supporters; its leaders also hope to attract intransigent #Taliban and other militants" per @UN member state intel

Estimates of #ISIS-#Khorasan size wary - from 500-1,500 fighters - though one intel agency warns "it may rise to as many as 10,000 over the medium term" per @UN report

More on the current state and the outlook for #alQaida #ISIS in #Afghanistan here:

voanews.com/us-afghanistan…

One intel agency report multiple instances of "funds traveling from a #Europe|an country through money service businesses to pay for the smuggling of women and children out of facilities in the north-east of the #Syria|n Arab Republic" per @UN report

The same intel agency says a single individual has "facilitated the travel of women with links to #Belgium, #Brazil, #Finland, the #Netherlands, the #Russia|n Federation, #Sweden, #Trinidad & #Tobago, & ##Uzbekistan out of camps" in NE #Syria

"These women have subsequently fled to the #Idlib area, neighbouring countries or, in some cases, their countries of origin" per @UN report

re #ISIS - displaced persons camps in NE #Syria