Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ccp11

Most recents (12)

#Hypothesis: Agreement to disengage in Pangong lake was reached in Sept-oct, but #CCP11 backtracked in Oct/nov on expectation of Biden win! Blinken's 6th Feb call to Yang Xi confirmed firm US policy towards China. #Xi gave approval for implantation of Pangong agreement thereafter
2/hy #CCPPLA will not abandon its #Creeping #Acquisition policy on India-Tibet border till there is a border settlement, or we establish #Hard #Deterrence viz #PLA, or both! Indian Nat security apparatus is working on this premise; Post-Galwan,political estblishment is on board!
3/hy Dis-engaging tanks & Heavy armor, from battle field positions, is the first step!
Read 12 tweets
The World economy went from excess demand before #GFC(Global financial crisil) to excess supply after it. #China's #trade #surpluses have therefore had an increasing depressing effect on global demand and world GDP growth since ~2006.
2/ch Sustaining China GDP gr(based on 47% investment rt & 37% Consumption rt) requires, (1) Large surpluses of exportable manuf goods, (2) technology theft & forced technology transfers to ensure rate of return on investment remains +ve. Stop these & gr will decelerate sharply
3/ch Analysts accepting China data alleging 1-3% GDP gr in 2020, must show much is inventory accumulation? Besides its usual fudging of deflators, in 2020, #CCP11 has accumulated unsold inventory, to show(fake) +ve gr & hidden the resulting loses with credit from State banks๐Ÿง๐Ÿค”
Read 3 tweets
"We will fight with what we have," can be costly in lives, when 2 land-obsessed, nuclear armed aggressors are colluding against us (for 50 yrs)! And it's difficult to indigenize when a stronger power is knocking down 1s door. We need both higher defence budget & an ally for 20yrs
2/xi The old story of the boy who cried #wolf will have to be inverted. In new story guards("experts") kept seeing wolf in distance, but didn't warn villagers, thinking its too far to worry. Villagers kept farming peacefully, till the wolf suddenly came & attacked children grp
3/Xi And we no longer have the luxury of time for gradual econ rfrm. We need #BigBang reform in FY21 to liberate a million entrepreneurs & attract Global #ValueChains to accelerate "catch-up growth". This will also generate revenues for Defence & encourage our partners'(economy)
Read 9 tweets
There are two types of foreign policy experts (1) Believe there is a #SinoPak alliance against India (whose seeds go back to mid-1960s secret nuclear agreement) (2) Those who think China-Pak relations are mainly about mutual economic benefit. Only the latter are surprised at ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ
2/ccp #CCP11 is a military threat:
Read 5 tweets
#Trade ideologues (who ๐Ÿ’• graduate trade theory) don't even understand the meaning of "China treatment" (in trade, tourism, FDI, technology)๐Ÿง๐Ÿค”
2/trd #FreeTrdIdeologues You will surely object to this violation of free trade? Graduate Trade theory textbooks don't mention slave labor? prison labor? ๐Ÿง๐Ÿค”
Read 32 tweets
Surely every serious national security strategist understands the distinction btwn Govts Geopolitical decisions and th military's detailed scenario planning & action program. A govt can decided on basis of expected value of outcome or worst case scenarios-the latter is paralyzing
2/ns The critical issue in China-India conflict is that,as of now (2020), #China controls the #escalatory ladder. So India's #National #Security Apparatus has to make assumptions about when and how #CCPpla will escalate, if it loses the first few steps on its escalatory ladder!
3/ns The worst case scenario for us is therefore the one in which after loosing previous escalations, #CCP China escalates to a full fledged war/attack on India, by shifting US-facing troops and highest quality equipment towards India. This has proved paralyzing for past Govts!๐Ÿค”
Read 69 tweets
Haven't we done this ("moot a sustained process of engagement with China at highest politico-diplomatic echelons... to seek multi-dimensional.. modus-vivendi; encompassing full gamut of bilateral issues like trade, territorial disputes, border-management, security) for 15 yrs?๐Ÿฅบ
2/ ๐Ÿ‘†๐Ÿผwill be futile without (1) Comprehensive #EcReforms to accelerate #GDP growth (โ€ฆ) to reduce China/India ratio (2) Higher budget allocation to #Defence, by reducing/targeting subsidies thru #DCT, (3) Reform of higher defence management incl a #UDC
3/ What the #WuhanVirus #Pandemic and #CCP11's unapologetic #aggressiveness have done is to show every1, that we do not have the luxury of delaying decisions & prevaricating indefinitely. @PMOIndia needs to step up pace of economic, institutional & national security, reforms!๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ
Read 3 tweets

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