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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
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10 Jul, 39 tweets, 30 min read
87/chin #ChinaEcon 🧵
88/chin Believe it or not #China #GDP
89/chin #China #GDP #Investment collapse (they had reduced 2019 no's to get higher growth rate for 2020) 🧵
90/chin #ChinaEcon In a closed totalitarian State, you have to read the tea leaves:
91/china #ChinaEcon Risk of expropriation is now here in #PRC
92/chin #ChinaEcon #MacroEc #ChinaRisk 🧵
93/chin #ChinaEcon #Export #Monopoly disrupted?
94/chin #China #GDP growth forecast for 2021 = 5%
95/chin Effect of #Delta #Lockdown of ports on #ChinaEcon
96/chin 😎
97/chin #ChinaEcon #MacroEc #PRC
98/chin #ChinaEcon, #MacroData,
99/chin #Xi #Jinping acknowledges #PRC previous #GDP #data fudging, which WB, IMF and US academics, pointed to decades ago🧵
100/chin Only problem #Chinese #exporters, are apparently not facing, is capital/credit shortage?
101/chin #ChinaEcon 🧵 on how #financial #crisis play out in a #Socialist #Market #Economy, run by a #CCP which is veering back to #Maoism 👇🏼
102/chin #ChinaEcon #GDP : Though Mr Miller of CBB is one of the best on China, I will stick to my forecast of 4.5% #average #GDP #growth in #decade 2020-29, with a forecast error of +/- 0.5% .
103/chin #ChinaEcon #GDP
104/chin #Debt How many of the 30(?) #PRC companies in this graph, don't have "China" in their name?
105/chin #ChinaEcon #CCP11 effect
106/chin #ChinaEcon I stick to 4.5% +/- 0.5% average GDP growth over decade of 2020s, which I have been saying for several years
107/chin The biggest Credit bubble burst n China! Will it be the last credit bubble before China GDP growth slows to a slower, more sustainable growth rate?
108/chin #Power shortage in "super efficient" #China #PRC? 🤔
109/chin #ChinaEcon #Electricity #supply
110/chin Believe it or not, #Blackouts in #Nirvana 🧐🤔
111/chin #PRC debt bubble & busts: "You haven't seen 🙈 anything yet"
112/chin Policy & regulatory risk in #China is much higher in 2021 than it was a decade ago (while its much lower in #India than it was a decade ago).
113/chin Are foreign investors in China, caught in the "Boiling Frog syndrome" since the 2015-16 capital crisis in #China #PRC ? Image
114/chin A frank appraisal of the #Chinese #economy in 2021
115/chin Perils of Politically driven #Import #substitution. Boycott of Cheap #Australian coal, means over dependence on lower quality, more costly domestic coal, leading to rise in coal costs for power producers, who are not allowed to pass on higher costs, lower production😢
116/chin ChinaEcon #PMI official below 50 in sept, unofficial below 50 in August: on.ft.com/3F3KQ5B
117/chin #Policy & #regulatory #risk has risen sharply in #China and fallen in #India over last decade. Portfolio diversification requires a reduction in #portfolio #allocation to China and increase in allocation to India:
118/chin #China #Investment collapse in Q2 of 2021:
119/chin .... to zero? barrons.com/articles/goldm…
120/chin Economics of #China #credit #bust 🧵
121/chin Growth Impact of #China #debt bubble bust: 🧵
122/chin #ChinaEcon #PRC's Asymmetric economic, trade technology, FDI and investment polices help the #CCP, not foreign investors. Compare the #ROR 🙏🏼
223/chin #ChinaEcon #RealEstate sector 🧵
124/chin #China #Working #age #population declining
125/chin #ChinaEcon 🧵 on property debt & debt servicing ratios

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More from @dravirmani

Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
1 Oct
#India-#US bilateral military ties will continue to broaden and deepen, based on the overlap of national security interests!
2/indus #Inda-#US B2B is critical to long term cooperation in defence production and weapons development: mybs.in/2Zi8awM
3/indus 🧵
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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
1 Oct
An efficient #GST with high boyancy, needs uniform 15% rate on 3/4th of Goods & services, exemption(0%) on basic food, drugs, health services & education(~1/10 of G&S), & higher rates (avg 30% inclusive of cess) on cigarettes & Autos(~1/10th). Drop higher revenue/rate obsession
2/gst The #GSTcouncil's obsession with immediate revenue raising by increasing rates, is damaging macro economy, by negatively impacting MSME/informal employment, income & consumption, and doing long term damage to inclusive growth and sustained higher revenues for development
3/gst Though in normal circumstances I recommend revenue neutral reform, in current depressed environment, revenue negative reform of GST is preferable to revenue positive GST reform, because it will provide a demand stimulus which will quickly recover the short term revenue loss
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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
13 Aug
Let there be no mistake about it(Ilusion/delusion): #USA lost to #Pakistan its first 21st century #Hybrid #war. #Taliban was merely an instrument! This defeat should by a case study on how to win a Hybrid war against a (powerful) democracy!
2/hw #Hybrid #War Thread1
3/hw #Hybrid #War Thread2
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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
13 Aug
The #Pakistan #Army learned the lessons from the #Vietnam war and carefully controlled the Western #narrative and the level of aggression in Afghanistan, the #US military apparently didn't, and lived in an imaginary wonderland created by its friends in Pakistan!
2/usa #BeAware: Unless #US foreign policy experts learn the correct lessons from the US post-war experience in the Indian sub-continent (& Asia more generally), they cannot be trusted to give sensible advise on S Asia to the US congress and US govt
3/usa This is solid competition for #CCP🤡, but #PRC will still win hands down! 🤓
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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
28 Jul
In my judgement, the political correction started 3-6 months ago, so it's just a matter of spelling it out in diplomatic language, to the US Govt and Congress!
2/indus #PM's message is very clear: We can discuss shared values, including differences & nuances as friends/equals; But just as you resent foreign interference in your democratic processes, we resent foreign interference even more, because of our colonial history.
3/indus Greater effort to understand each other's views on issues on which there is a lot of ideological-political differences within each democracy (rather than to lecture from one perspective in one country to a different perspective in the other country)? 🧐🤔
Read 5 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
18 Jul
Superpower or 🤡? "Pakistan’s army & its Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) play key role in Taliban offensive. Without logistical support from Pakistan, the Taliban would be hard-pressed to operate in such a widespread way". epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TheE…
2/usa Superpower or 🤡? "Of course, Pakistan has been the Taliban’s patron since its creation in the 1990s.
It is impossible to defeat the Taliban as long as Pakistan provides sanctuary and safety, training, equipment and funds for the Taliban."..3/
3/usa #Clownanalysis101 🤡 "Pakistan cannot be defeated, as it is a nuclear-armed State and has the fifth-largest population in world. ...It is curious that Biden has so little to engage with Pakistan. He has yet to talk with Imran Khan." ☝🏼superpower is going to fight #China?😭
Read 61 tweets

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