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Showed my grad students how to use "Machine Learning" to study "Militarized Interstate Dispute" data.

Why did I do it and what did the students (and the computer) learn?

A bit of context. The theme of the class was the use of "event data" to study conflict.

A prominent example of such data are "Militarized Interstate Disputes" or MIDs
I had the students read Gochman and Maoz's 1984 JCR piece that introduced the concept…
Read 36 tweets
Version 3 of the #CFBPlayoff rankings were released last night. What you expected? If youve followed along since early Oct you know the process. You werent surprised. For the rest of you, lets take a look & compare to what was projected using the same process used for 5 yrs.
First off, why does the committee use this process? Think about it. 14 busy guys make up this committee. They have roughly 60 hrs from when the last game ends on Sat to when they need to have this Top 25 created on Tues. If they evaluate only 30 teams to get that 25, how much
time is adequate to evaulate? 1 hr? Thats 30 hrs of evaluation. Half the time is gone & no one has slept. The process of getting a consensus out of 14 people hasnt even started. Thats why this process is kept so simple, & its why they have a defined predictable process.
Read 29 tweets
Read 970 tweets
I want to clear up some very common misconceptions that have come from the national media down to the casual fan:

Calling Jim Harbaugh’s era a “failure” at Year 5 due to no Big Ten titles/CFP appearances is extremely shortsighted and inaccurate. I’ll explain. (thread)
Misconception #1: Harbaugh is overpaid. INCORRECT. Jim could have had a $10 million dollar a year contract for an NFL franchise. At $7.5 million, he is currently being paid 75% of his market value. And NFL teams are STILL inquiring about his interest to return to the NFL.
Misconception #2: He should be on the hot seat for missing the B1G title again. WRONG AGAIN. Only one team can win a title per year. JH took over a down M program during a time when B1G was/is as strongest as its ever been. B1G title isn’t “manifest destiny” for M. Must be earned
Read 7 tweets
what do you think of when you hear the term *Big Data*? Is it: oooh, cool new data ... grrr, making econ even more exclusive ... humph, <eye roll> ... hello, I’ve been working with huge data sets for a long time and no one through me a party ... / thread ...
when I hear *Big Data* I think of @goodasdunn (mentored me for years), Paul Lengermann (boss I was so lucky to have) @laurafeiveson (one of the best economists I’ve helped hire), Adi Aladangady (makes #goblue proud & just became a proud dad), & Shifrah Aron-Dine (future of econ)
huh? why five excellent economists? ... simple, the six of us have been working together (burning through almost all of our research time) for the past three years on an eye-opening, hard, & super cool *Big Data* project at the Board
Read 9 tweets
1) @foxnewsalert ==> Furious #ChicagoCops release entire #Smollett case file online, prompting possibly moot court order

#FoxNews link in Tweet ==> Chicago cops fume as prosecutors refuse to explain stunning decision to let Smollett walk
#FoxNews ==> #ChicagoPolice release files in 'Empire' star #JussieSmollett case, day after charges were dramatically dropped…
Corruption based out of #Chicago, where #Hussein jumpstarted his political career & #RahmEmanuel rules?
3) Still looking for sauce on this release. It's said 2be a redacted doc, which leads 2the question, where are they & just how much is redacted?
@KatrinaPierson Tweet ==>
Read 3 tweets
Waiting for more information, but alerts went out claiming an active shooter near Mason Hall at Michigan.

Hoping everyone stays safe.
Please be careful if you are in the area. Even if this is a false alarm, police are actively looking for a shooter and on edge which creates a dangerous situation. Get indoors and stay there until there is an update.
DPSS saying there does not appear to be an active threat. It may have been a false alarm, but better to be safe.
Read 6 tweets
1/9: "No More Dough?"
Raw cookie dough is fun to eat.
Its taste and texture can’t be beat.
And yet, says @SGottliebFDA,
To cookie dough we must say nay.
@umichsph @UM_IHPI @CBSSM
2/9: Their message is: consume it not.
Raw dough’s not safe; it must be hot!
Raw eggs and flour can cause you harm,
Director tweets to raise alarm
3/9: It’s true there’s risk in eating dough,
But you can make it safer, though.
Use eggs that have been pasteurized.
They work just fine. You’ll be surprised!
Read 9 tweets
@schnitzr This is absolutely appalling. Research shows responsible transparent non-stigmatized conversations around sexual health information and behaviors are essential to sexual public health. Joe Gow should be being heralded as a hero for breaking the barrier to discussion. #healthysex
@schnitzr The Need to Promote Sexual Health in America: A New Vision for Public Health Action #healthysex
@schnitzr Sexual Health in America: Improving Patient Care and Public Health… "3rd, cuz STIs...R highly stigmatized conditions, use of a broader, sex-positive, health-focused framework...2 reduce stigma, fear, & discrimination assoc w/ these conditions." #healthysex
Read 12 tweets

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