Some thoughts on the Kim-Trump summit.
Viewed in the light of past diplomacy around NK’s nuclear programme there is a strong sense of déjà vu: warm declarations about a non-nuclear future without any clear steps showing how it will be reached. This has been going on for a quarter of a century. 1/
A difference from past agreements is that NK has used that time to become a nuclear power. Leads to important implication. There is no need for Pyongyang to engage in conspicuous cheating with new tests of weapons. The lack of new tests should contribute to easing tensions.2/
May matter more with long-range missiles than warheads. In this respect it is now less likely that NK will develop a credible threat to the continental US (partly depends on what progress is made without testing) and Trump can claim this is a major plus. He already has done.3/
NK of course still poses a credible threat to all its neighbours. Trump may be less bothered about this than the US’s regional allies. As we know he takes a US-centric view of these things. 4/
Kim has achieved his main objective by having his summit with Trump. A ruthless, dynastic dictator presiding over a weak state gets a warmer embrace than America’s traditional allies.5/
As useful he has begun to sort out his frosty relations with China. Kim only got this because of his nuclear arsenal which is why few specialists expect him to give it up. 6/
This is of course exactly what John Bolton warned against before he became NSA. We can assume the Libyan option is off the table but what happens if and when it becomes apparent that no progress towards complete denuclearisation is being made? 7/
Having had his historic moment Trump may not care but at some point this will be hard to ignore. This is particularly true if the intention is to take this forward with more summitry (inc in Washington). 8/
Can there be another such meeting without actual progress on the detail of denuclearisation? How are the next steps to be negotiated (communique unclear on that). 9/
Kim may be tempted by more steps into the limelight (and he will have more opportunities for foreign travel, inc Moscow). But he may also see that it will get harder to have high-profile meetings without tangible progress.10/
My guess is that the Moon-Kim discussions which are largely on non-nuclear issues will get priority. The SK president has been the main driver of the process from the start. 11/
The new position is better than the ‘fire and fury’ polemics of last year. In general diplomatic contact is good (the UK has long had an Embassy in Pyongyang) and certainly need not convey approval.12/
But Trump’s rhetorical excesses have helped legitimise a tyranny and left him vulnerable to later charges of naivety (and he may not care). End. 13/
Wrote this before seeing that Trump has agreed to stop annual war games with South Korea. That is big gain for Kim. This decision 'reversible' but that would now signal real heightening of tensions rather than business as usual.
