Thread by @jonworth

Something about this #Seehofer "resignation" does not add up.

A thread.

1/9

Merkel went to Brussels and got a framework for a deal on refugees, the sort of thing that Seehofer was pushing for. A bit thin on the details, but Merkel did not return empty handed.

2/9

The normal CSU reaction to this would have been to have claimed a minor victory, to show how Bavaria's interests were being taken seriously, and move on somewhat.

3/9

But no.

We have Seehofer resigning (not accepted at the time of writing), and CSU Parliamentary Leader Dobrindt - more of a neo-con right winger in contrast to Seehofer's jocular Bavarian traditionalism - requesting that he does not go.

Why?

4/9

As I see it Dobrindt and Markus Söder would have *more* problem with what Merkel brokered than Seehofer himself would. They are the ones who have piloted the CSU towards the AfD, and also want to create Bannon-esque atmosphere that Germany's institutions are failing.

5/9

Could it be that Seehofer proposed to move on from the fight with Merkel, and to underline what had been achieved? But Söder and Dobrindt demanded the CSU keeps up the pressure - and that was something Seehofer did not want to do, and hence he chose to go?

6/9

It could, I suppose, be that Seehofer felt he has taken the CSU to the edge, but Merkel outwitted him, and hence his position would be untenable. But that leads me back to tweet 3 above - why not frame Merkel's deal as a CSU victory?

7/9

We'll find out soon enough exactly what happened here, but to me this looks like tensions inside the CSU, rather than Seehofer-Merkel tensions, forced this over the edge.

8/9

And the really scary prospect?

Can you imagine Dobrindt as Interior Minister?

😬‼️😬‼️😬‼️😬

9/9

From Spiegel’s live blog - they attribute this all to Seehofer saying he has inadequate backing within the CSU (midnight update) spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… 10/9