Thread by @emmevilla

(⛔🚢BREAKING) NO WAY OUT. As fighting in #Tripoli rages on, this August just 1,300 #migrants left #Libya in an attempt to reach Europe by sea.

This is the LOWEST Summer figure since 2012.

#Libia

Migrants are trapped in #Libya, often in appalling conditions. Made even worse by the recent fighting in #Tripoli.
FOLLOW this crucial reporting by @sallyhayd. 👇

https://twitter.com/sallyhayd/status/1036018176000253952

(⛔🚢BREAKING) Of the 742 that made it to Europe from #Libya this August, less than a third (234) disembarked in Italy. Of these, 190 were onboard an Italian Coast Guard ship during the "#Diciotti standoff".

Another 56% (416) disembarked in Malta.
12% (87) disembarked in Spain.

Meanwhile, smuggling in #Libya is slowly reorganizing. More and more of those who attempt the journey try to reach #Italy directly, entering the Maltese SAR zone.
Earlier this year, almost everyone was saved within the Libyan SAR zone.

More standoffs likely in September.

(⛔🚢BREAKING) Of the few #migrants that attempted to leave #Libya to reach Europe in August, around 4 in 10 were brought back by the Libyan Coast Guard.
While still very high, this hints at a sharp decrease in activity by the LCG (follow on).

(⛔🚢BREAKING) As smugglers increasingly switch to boats with engines, the Libyan Coast Guard appears to be less able to deter this kind of departures.
Interceptions peaked at 3,453 in June, but dropped to just 552 in August. These are the lowest figures since April 2016.

(⛔🚢BREAKING) The risk of dying at sea in Central Med remained more than double the period before "total deterrence" starterd.

In August, risk dropped to 1.4%. While suggestive of a possible trend, given low number of departures, this is not (yet) statistically relevant.

👇

BOTTOM LINES:
- As departures drop to lowest level in years, #migrants are trapped in #Libya;
- Deteriorating security conditions in #Tripoli raise risk migrants are caught in the middle;
- Smuggling is slowly adapting to new conditions, but for now has been dealt quite a blow.

DATA.
The dataset is publicly available here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

It will be constantly updated over the next months.

Previous instalment (August, with July 2018 data): "Everyone goes back". 👇

https://twitter.com/emmevilla/status/1024930319986839553