1 What happens to EU citizens resident in the UK in the event of no deal?
Nobody knows of course and nobody in government is prepared to say (see eg or ).
Nobody knows of course and nobody in government is prepared to say (see eg or ).
2 The bad news is that we've had @Nigel_Farage basically suggesting we should deport EU citizens living here if there's no deal: (see )
3 ... and prominent Tories like Peter Lilley and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg apparently suggesting that the vague assurances made so far to EU citizens would be null and void in the event of no deal (see thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen… and docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/fc5611_cb1…)
4 Moreover (soz Nick) the UK government is still not saying anything about the rights of people from EEA countries that are not in the EU like citizens of Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland but who currently have FoM in the UK. (see gov.uk/settled-status…) 
5 The slightly better news is that the EU Withdrawal Act essentially incorporates many EU27 citizens’ rights in UK law for now - though this is a complicated subject (see eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/07/uk-cit…)
6 Also, the government has made several public "commitments" to EU/EEA citizens. They are "commitments" which always have get-out clauses if you read them carefully but most of the public (as was clearly the intention) seem convinced that commitments have been made.
7 It would be difficult for the government to rely on its weaselly wording to renege on these "commitments".
8 But I suppose the best thing EU in UK have going for them is that it is hard - even after a ERG coup and a government led @BorisJohnson, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg and @LiamFox et al - to imagine the UK going full Idi Amin and deporting 3.8 million people and their families.
9 Not impossible to imagine, but hard to imagine.
10 The real problems for EU citizens resident in UK in a no deal scenario will - I suspect - arrive less dramatically.
11 As economic conditions worsen and the news is filled with stories of practical problems faced by importers, exporters, travellers and UK citizens in the E27, our politicians and much of our media will try to blame all this on the EU rather than on their own backing for Brexit.
12 The resulting tide of resentment against the rest of Europe will inevitably translate into into greater resentment towards its citizens living here.
13 In such circumstance, there is a real danger that "hostile environment" practices will be increasingly applied to the 3.8 million EU citizens applying for settlement.
14 Also (partly because of the climate and partly because of the deluge of such stories) the public may become increasingly indifferent to reports in the anti-Brexit papers about families being made destitute, split up and deported to countries where they have no ties or family.
15 This will not happen to 3.8 million people of course, but it could (in a no-deal situation that has gone sour) happen to a significant minority who fail to jump over the hurdles erected by an understaffed and beleaguered (from all sides) Home Office.
16 Landlords, health service gatekeepers, and employers may - in the circumstance described - increasingly tend to play it safe and turn away EU citizens rather than risk fines for getting it wrong or the wrath of a sizeable chunk of public opinion cheered on by pro-Brexit papers
17 In the longer term. EU citizens who do successfully apply for settlement can - in a no deal situation - expect to see their rights: to appeals, to absence from the UK, to family reunion, to marry a foreigner etc steadily whittled down to those "enjoyed" by non-EU residents.
18 All without any recourse, in law, to the protections (such as they are) offered by a withdrawal agreement with the EU.
19 The public seem to imagine that assurances (or at least strong expectations) that (even in a no deal scenario) EU citizens will not actually be rounded up and put on boats (planes may not be flying) makes everything fine for such citizens and their families
It really doesn't!
It really doesn't!
@threadreaderapp unroll
