Really interesting developments in Germany which brings us back to the question whether Merkel's indeed "weakened" as some British commenters (among others e.g. @GoodwinMJ) suggested: It highly depends on the context, the way it's often framed is - however - rather misleading. /1
The context in which people suggest that Merkel is weakened is the raise of populism: Broad idea, Merkel's is a typical example of centrist politicians who lose out or get increasingly under pressure by populist parties or populist within her own party. /2
This is not entirely wrong but definitely not correct either, it's a bit misleading and grossly simplified - rather fitting it to a narrative of populist rise than actual a accurate capture of her position. /3
For one: Merkel is a power politician who's strengths is also determined through the absence of a powerful challenger. She killed them off and the list is long: Merz, Koch, Wulff and even the former "everybody's darling" Guttenberg was trashed. /4
Additional, she remains one of the most popular politicians in Germany - not just in her own party. That the popularity weakens over time is normal and there is little which suggests that there was a atypical acceleration of this weakening. /5
Generally speaking it is rather unusual that a politician who is not foreign minister has such a standing. In that sense: yes, she might be less popular then before but still extremely strong standing which boosts her position within the party. /6
Try to oust somebody without having a powerful and skillful challenger who is presentable to a wider audience: hence Spahn's "Zwergenaufstand" with Seehofer didn't work. /7
However, since a while there are rumours she is going to stand down. For one, she's since nearly 30 yrs frontbencher. Second, it's better to go in an orderly fashion as a popular figure than clinging to your post until they need to remove you in a humiliating manner. /8
Besides, the last thing she probably wants is to leave unexpectedly and create turmoil in her party. There needs to be somebody found who can serve her party in a similarly effective and efficient fashion. /9
In short, : if you consider it weakened that people start looking for a successor, well, you are right. But her influence on this process is not to be underestimated and so far it seems she decides when to depart what indicates that her position is quite strong. /10
On aspect which seem to matter most for British commenters: migration. Well, she still defends FoM same as all other parties in Bundestag (apart from maybe AfD, but they never positioned themselves) and the principle itself is rather popular as well. /11
On refugee: there was indeed a shift of rhetoric, but here are some caveats needed. For one she never backtracked on her policy and it was clear that the actions during the crisis was rather temporarily. /12
Second, in legal terms thee was no substantial shift. Other than in UK, the parliament is bound by the constitution and it guarantees right on asylum - and the constitutional court is eager to defend it. Hence some parts of Seehofer's plans were probably not doable. /13
In a practical sense, little changed if u accept that the refugee crisis itself was an anomaly. Generally speaking it's also to doubt that the principle behind the actions was key driver of the critics. It was probably more important it seemed chaotic rather than in order. /14
And on Brexit: Sorry guys, but she presents the German mainstream. The public has a hardened stance (see @stefwalter__), nearly all parties in Bundestag (apart from AfD maybe) and business are very protective over EU's red lines. /15
To be frank, it has constitutional roots (European integration is mentioned in constitution) but it is also part of GER's foreign policy since 50s to take a positive stance towards European integration. Anything risking it (e.g. unraveling SM principles) doesn't go down well. /16
There is a reason why GER foreign policy follows the principle of continuation. By the way, it's doubtful that even the Left has objections to the principle (if you exclude questions of military & defense). /17
Also here: here stance on these matters are backed and can't be classified as weakened. /18
Yes, there is AfD but currently CSU learns that imitating them doesn't help much. Hence there is little indication that a populist will become dangerous for Merkel. Seehofer just learnt this lesson, more or less./19
That AfD raised during Merkels reign is also not necessarily due to her but to lack of an adequate right wing party. In the 90% the voter potential was estimated by 20%. Pretty accurate so far, this was before Merkel's time. /20
You could argue that she did little to prevent fragmentation of the party system of society but tbh, centre right doesn't look remotely as fragmented as centre left and left. In that sense, she was successful. /21
In short: It seems that the claim of a weakened Merkel is out of context, grossly simplified and exaggerated given the circumstances.
*1990s
