A few thoughts on the state election in the Hesse region of Germany.
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Germany's two big traditional parties, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) are the big losers. Each party is at a historic low. 
There are also two big winners:
* The far-right AfD, which is now represented in every state parliament in the country as well as the Bundestag.
* And the Greens, who are now a serious competitor to the SPD even in its traditional heartlands.
* The far-right AfD, which is now represented in every state parliament in the country as well as the Bundestag.
* And the Greens, who are now a serious competitor to the SPD even in its traditional heartlands.
This raises a few big questions:
Will the CDU (and other center-right parties in PR systems) find the same fate as social democratic parties?
Ten years ago, it looked like social democracy had unique problems. Now it seems like it may have been a harbigner for all big parties.
Will the CDU (and other center-right parties in PR systems) find the same fate as social democratic parties?
Ten years ago, it looked like social democracy had unique problems. Now it seems like it may have been a harbigner for all big parties.
Will the Greens be able to replace the SPD as the biggest left-leaning party in Germany?
I now think that's a real possibility. They have a much more coherent group of voters, and a much clearer voice on the cultural fights that define the current moment.
I now think that's a real possibility. They have a much more coherent group of voters, and a much clearer voice on the cultural fights that define the current moment.
Can the social democrats once again become a "Volkspartei"?
I'm increasingly skeptical. The problem is not its lack of charismatic candidates or the grand coalition in Berlin. It's the attempt to appeal to two very different groups that no longer have much in common.
I'm increasingly skeptical. The problem is not its lack of charismatic candidates or the grand coalition in Berlin. It's the attempt to appeal to two very different groups that no longer have much in common.
What implications do these elections have for Berlin?
The poor showing in Bavaria was a mixed bag for Merkel, since the CSU was so hostile to her. But the poor showing in Hesse is a real problem, since Bouffier is an ideological ally.
(Contd.)
The poor showing in Bavaria was a mixed bag for Merkel, since the CSU was so hostile to her. But the poor showing in Hesse is a real problem, since Bouffier is an ideological ally.
(Contd.)
The impression increasingly is that Merkel is living off borrowed time. And what I found striking speaking to a few influential CDU politicians in the past weeks is that this is no longer just an ideological fight: Even moderates and erstwhile allies now feel she has to go.
So the feeling after Bavaria and Hesse is that something will have to give. But it's not at all clear that something will because:
* The SPD is scared of new elections
* The CDU doesn't know how to putch Merkel
* There's no obvious successor
* The SPD is scared of new elections
* The CDU doesn't know how to putch Merkel
* There's no obvious successor
There's a German saying: "Things never turn out as you think they will." Perhaps the next weeks will bring the end of Merkel and the beginning of a fresh chapter.
But the most likely scenario is another two years of stagnation and frustration. And that's pretty worrying.
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But the most likely scenario is another two years of stagnation and frustration. And that's pretty worrying.
[End.]
Oh, and to add the obvious: The most important election taking place today is not in Hesse but rather in Brazil, where the fate of the country's democracy likely hangs in the balance. I'll be writing more about that when the polls close in a few hours.
