The two front-runners are Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), the continuity candidate, and Friedrich Merz, who wants to take the party back towards the right. Jens Spahn, a younger right-wing contender, stands less of a chance [2/8]
The most tense exchanges between the candidates have been over how the party should address #migration and the rise in support for the far right. Germany is not unusual here - centre-right parties across Europe are grappling with this question [4/8] 
If AKK wins we expect her to take the CDU towards a slightly more conservative social stance but to remain centrist on economic issues. Our call is that Merkel would step down voluntarily before the end of her term in this scenario [5/8]
If Merz wins we expect him to shift the CDU sharply to the right on both social and economic issues. Merkel could find her chancellorship untenable and be forced to step down if the position of her party diverges too far from her views [6/8]
A right-ward shift in the CDU would also discomfit the SPD, raising intra-coalition tensions. The European Parliament elections in May and three state elections in Sept-Oct could trigger a snap election, if the coalition parties underperform [7/8]
We expect the #German government to last its full term to 2021, but expect #Merkel to step down before this. Our full analysis of the contenders to lead the #CDU is free to read here [8/8] country.eiu.com/article.aspx?a…
