Thread by @HNIJohnMiller

1) A model which is based on shit assumptions makes for a shit model.

First words uttered by my macroeconomics professor.

The Democrats are wrong and will be wrong tomorrow because their model is based on shit assumptions.

2) They assumed in 2017 when they first spoke of the Blue Wave that Trump would behave like every other politician ever. They assumed he would break promises, play ball with the establishment, depress his base.

Then Trump brought in his hatchet man @Scaramucci and cleaned house.

@Scaramucci 3) They assumed that Generic Democrat would be more popular than Generic Republican, and that they would have an edge they could exploit.

Then Trump turned the midterm elections into Generic Mob-loving Socialist Democrat vs Trump the Jobs Guy.

@Scaramucci 4) They assumed Trump’s base was the standard array of Republican voters.

No. We have channers. We have union Dems who watched union bosses get a payoff while their overtime hours got cut. We have #WalkAway and #BLEXIT.

@Scaramucci 5) We have goddamn BERNIE BROS for shits’ sake. Bernie Bros, who wanted to burn the system down with a meme candidate. 10 years ago they would have been Ron Paul supporters. Hell, some of them PROBABLY WERE

@Scaramucci 6) They’ve been assuming millennials will turn out in the same numbers for Democrats as they did for Obama in 2008. They’ve been assuming that since 2008. THEY’VE ALWAYS BEEN WRONG.

@Scaramucci 7) They assume Trump voters will be mad there’s no wall and healthcare isn’t repealed.

No, we blame Flake, Corker, Murkowski, and others. We blame a party that has been resistant to winning.

@Scaramucci 8) We’re going to win. Democrats have to set record breaking voter turnout just to make up the deficit from early voting. Republicans just have to SHOW UP.

@Scaramucci 9) So you tell me. What’s more likely. A party that can’t fill a damn high school gym to see their former president or vice president unless they put on a free concert?

Or a party that came in the thousands for a guy a year ago was called Grahamnesty, and is now a memetic idol?

@Scaramucci 10) A party who’s turnout for a Trump rally is so large they can’t even fit the tens of thousands that arrive in an airport hangar?

@Scaramucci 11) “Oh, those teachers that are running for Kentucky house seats, they’re looking like they might win.” Really? The teachers that went on strike statewide and fucked up tens of thousands of families schedules? Ask Wisconsin how that worked out for them.

@Scaramucci 12) Shit assumptions. All of them. Shit assumptions leading to a shit model.

Tomorrow, we take that shit model, we shove it in @NateSilver538’s balding face, and we tell him, “Turn in your goddamn degrees. Your numbers amount to squat when you REFUSE TO FIX YOUR MODEL.”

@Scaramucci @NateSilver538 13) Tomorrow, I stop by @SethAbramson’s twitter feed and I say, “Remember me? Remember the guy you said was going to be disappointed? Merry early Christmas. Can’t wait to tell you all about how wrong you’ve been for the past 2 years, buttnugget.”

@Scaramucci @NateSilver538 @SethAbramson 14) Tomorrow, we tear away the curtain and expose the Acosta-Dorsey-Maddow-Zuckerburg circlejerk that was fooling half the nation into believing a false reality.

@Scaramucci @NateSilver538 @SethAbramson 15) And the day after? We take the crying liberal by the hand, and we say, “Here’s a funny meme. Now allow me to tell you what has been hidden from you for the past 3 years.”

/end