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Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg
, 15 tweets, 11 min read Read on Twitter
Hi all 😀Ready for some #HZupdates? I have had some busy weeks - however, I expect to post more regularly soon again. I'm also spending more time on my Whatsapp list for subscribers. Some great trades ahead. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD No changes to LT-view. We are on the path towards 0.91. I do expect a bounce in EURUSD, before a crash will set in #HZupdates
#EURUSD Following the bounce, the decline will be forceful - comparable to the decline in 2014-15 in steepness. One small bounce on the way towards 0.91 will be wave 4 #HZupdates
Bounce in EUR and hence the pullback in USD is visible in #DXY. I expect a decline to unfold, likely to be a catalyst for a Christmas rally in equities. This pullback in USD will be last opportunity to close any short exposure towards USD. Coming rally will be strong #HZupdates
Pullback in #DXY is likely to give some support to #Gold, which will rally up for a backtest. This is last chance for getting out of Gold before the crash. Soon Gold will break Green trendline and in 5 waves reach LT-target of ~750. Steepness of decline = 2012-13 #HZupdates
#Deflation is what will drive the move. And #AUDUSD (=inflation gauge) indicates, that we are on the verge of a strong move down. Small bounce on LT-trend. LT-target by Mid-2019 is ~0.5. This will have effects across many markets #HZupdates
#Deflation is also what will drive first wave of major bear in #equities. Wave A of ABC-correction is playing out now. At some point in 2019, Fed (or US admin) will react to fight deflationary forces. This will create a bounce, only to throw economy into stagflation #HZupdates
I called top in #Oil #WTI. It has dropped ~30% since. This is highly deflationary. And we are not done. We will likely see bounce, before we continue towards LT-target <23 #HZupdates
#Deflation and Equity Bear Market is going to be tough on Europe, which is likely to be the source of problems. #DAX looks scary. Broke trendline. I expect ABC-correction to unfold. LT-target of ~3500 #HZupdates
#TLT I remember few weeks back, when everybody was saying, that the Bond bubble had burst. I went Long TLT. At this point US bonds have great potential (we may see one more pullback). I expect ATL in yields before Kondratiev winter is over ~2023-25 #HZupdates
Dr. Copper says, that the prognosis is bad for world economy. #Deflation ahead - and major drop ahead for #copper. This is bad sign for all risk assets AND for Gold/Silver, commodities #HZupdates
The forecast is clear - which has been my thesis for long time! We are in the deflationary part of the economic slowdown caused by Fed hike and QT. Coincident economic numbers are not showing this yet (GDP, employment etc.) - but soon the slowdown will be clear to all #HZupdates
Fed will try to stay hawkish - BUT will eventually (Mid-2019) have to reverse on current policy. This will create bounce in the economy and will end deflation. BUT - the effect will be short-lived and not have real value for real economy (only equities) #HZupdates
Real economy will continue to slow despite Fed, as DEBT is THE problem. Only when world debt has been reduced significantly (inflation, defaults) will the world start to grow again. This may take years (~2025) as politicians will lag understanding of needed measures #HZupdates
But in the ST perspective, we have troubles ahead. I fear the social and political fall-outs from what is ahead. Stay safe! Cash (USD) is King for now. Later Precious Metals. If you want to join my paid subscription list - please let me know! All done with #HZupdates for today 😀
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