Thread by @tictoc

A year after the middle class tax cut, the rich are winning. Here's how

The promise: The wealthy won't benefit.

Trump: "The rich will not be gaining at all with this plan."

That's false. On average, in 2018, taxes declined for everyone, but top groups got the biggest benefit

The promise: Middle class will be the biggest beneficiaries.

Trump: "Our framework ensures that the benefits of tax reform go to the middle class, not to the highest earners."

False: Families earning $200K-$1M will see a 9% drop, 1 point more than families earning $75K-$100K

The promise: The tax code will be simplified.

Paul Ryan: "We’re making things so simple that you can do your taxes on a form the size of a postcard."

Mostly true. The overall effect is modest: The Treasury says people will spend 4%-7% less time filing their 2018 taxes next year

The promise: The pass-through provision will help small businesses across America.

Susan Collins: "This bill provides important tax relief to small businesses that are the backbone of our economy."

True, but...

The promise: Corporations will boost wages and families will get an average pay increase of $4,000 to $9,000.

A year later, it's not looking good. Prominent companies promised to pass their savings onto employees. But just 6% of tax cuts were allocated to workers

The promise: Corporations will make more capital expenditures domestically.

True, for now: There’s no sign of a corporate spending spree. Nonresidential business investment rose 2.5% in the third quarter, the smallest increase since the final 3 months of 2016

The promise: Corporations will repatriate trillions of dollars stashed offshore back to the U.S.

Trump: "We expect to have in excess of $4 trillion brought back very shortly."

It's not looking good. Data shows firms have repatriated ~$464 billion in the first half of the year

The promise: The new international provisions will modernize the U.S.'s tax system and deter companies from shifting profits offshore.

There's some improvement here: A corporate tax rate of 21% does bring the U.S. much closer to its international peers than the old 35% rate

The promise: Tax cuts will pay for themselves.

McConnell: "We are totally confident this is a revenue-neutral bill and probably a revenue producer."

That's false, for now. The CBO estimated the law would add $1.9 trillion to the federal debt through 2027. That's looking right

The promise: The tax law will help to create sustained long-term GDP growth of 3%.

The tax cuts probably gave the economy a boost. The question is whether it amounts to a high that will fade with time. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the economy to grow 2.6% in 2019

The promise: The tax law will eliminate special interests.

Not so much. The tax overhaul eliminated several provisions that have been called loopholes, but special-interest lobbyists still have plenty to celebrate

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