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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Pundits' assumptions about how demographics shape preferences are too simplistic.

Example: @perrybaconjr argues Harris would do well in California because of its large Asian-American population. But will Harris being half-Indian help her with East Asians?
fivethirtyeight.com/features/kamal…
I mean... perhaps? And, yes, about 10% of Asian-Americans in CA are of Indian origin. But I do think this area is rife with lazy thinking.

Btw, I use Perry as an example precisely because he's usually so insightful. (You should listen to our podcast!)
stitcher.com/podcast/new-am…
Here's a great piece by @perrybaconjr that makes much the same point my original tweet did, btw: The relationship between demography and voting behavior is more complicated than we tend to assume--which helps explain Trump's support among some Latinos.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-l…
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More from @Yascha_Mounk see all

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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
This campaign ad showcases the kind of argument with which Democrats would beat Trump hands-down in 2020. And the good news is that it's not unique to @CoryBooker: @BetoORourke, @KamalaHarris, etc. are singing from the same hymn book.

Here's what they have in common.

[thread]
1) Preach Love, Not Hate

The base is desperate to see Trump thrown out of the White House. But it doesn't just want to beat him--it wants American politics to become less nasty in the process.

Booker goes all in on the theme of "impracticable love." But he's not alone.
.@nytdavidbrooks, for example, describes @KamalaHarris as a pugilistic fighter. But she too is emphasizing reconciliation:

“People in power are trying to convince us that the villain in our American story is each other. But that is not our story. That is not who we are.”
Read 11 tweets
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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
Should Democrats impeach Donald Trump now that they have control of the House?

It's a serious question and @YAppelbaum has just made a compelling case for impeachment in @theatlantic.

But, for now at least, I think the right answer is no.

(Thread.)
slate.com/news-and-polit…
Yoni lays out the moral, legal and strategic reasons for impeachment.

He's clarified my thinking and I am persuaded by many of the points. In particular, I think there is a clear moral and a plausible legal case for impeachment.

Do read his piece!
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
But it’s not enough for there to be a moral and legal case for impeaching Trump. For the task is not just to remove Trump from office; it is to ensure that Trumpism does not dominate American politics for the next decades.

To do so, we need to think strategically.
Read 14 tweets
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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
For the past months, I’ve travelled the length and breadth of Germany to understand how far-right populists are exploiting the tragic case of a 14 year-old girl who was brutally murdered by a refugee.

Now, my story is finally out in @newyorker!

(Thread.)
newyorker.com/magazine/2019/…
I’m a trained political scientist, not a journalist. But every time I do on-the-ground reporting, I’m struck by how much I learn—and how much it changes my view of the situation on the ground.

That was definitely the case this time around.
The last months have changed my mind on two important things, in particular:

First, the far-right in Germany is much more sophisticated, and their alternative media universe way more developed, than most of us have realized.

This ain’t going away anytime soon.
Read 18 tweets

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James Lanman
@jameslanman
🌊🌊🌊#California #Midterms #Election : A #votersguide🌊🌊🌊

(A) Please share/repost/comment to increase visibility and help someone vote. Please make one of these for your state. I'll try to keep these fairly succinct and cite sources where I can. This is how I'm voting:
(B) Governor: @GavinNewsom

Whether you're a Newsom loyalist or a contrarian who likes to impress their friends by not being for anything popular, here's your alternative: "President Trump Endorses Republican John Cox for..." Yeah, nope.

latimes.com/politics/la-po…
(C) Lt. Governor: Eleni Koulanakis @eleniforca

The Sac Bee/EMILY's List/Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris all endorse her. She seems highly qualified to tackle California's affordable housing and homelessness problems and out of the two candidates she's the only one who mentioned
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Keeper Of Numbers
@Number_Keeper
The Suffocation of Democracy

By: Christopher R. Browning

THREAD✔
1/
As a historian specializing in the #Holocaust, #Nazi Germany, and #Europe in the era of the world wars, I have been repeatedly asked about the degree to which the current situation in the United States resembles the interwar period and the rise of #fascism in Europe.
2/
I would note several troubling similarities and one important but equally troubling difference.

In the 1920s, the US pursued #isolationism in foreign #policy and rejected participation in international organizations like the League of Nations.
3/
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Minh-Ha T. Pham
@minh81
The alarming numbers of Cambodian, Lao, and Vietnamese Americans being targeted for deportation should remind us that (1) white supremacy impacts Asian Americans (should be obvious, somehow isn't) and
... (2) when we talk about Black and brown people's vulnerability to structural forms of racism, some of the brown people are brown Asians (yes, we DO exist).
About brown Asian Americans (from a 2018 SEARAC report)
- Today, over 18% of Cambodian families and 27% of Hmong families still live below the poverty line, compared with 11% of U.S. families overall.
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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Jeffrey Peterson🇺🇸
@realJeffreyP
As the #NXIVM case gains momentum in #Mexican media, a political blog in #Mexico, "indice politico," published this article a few days ago. In case you don't know Spanish, the headline says, "[frmr. Pres.] Carlos Salinas can have you assassinated." #NXIVM indicepolitico.com/carlos-salinas…
...[continued] 4 those of you who know how 2 use Google Translate, U can cut and paste this quote: "Sea o no merecido, Carlos Salinas es probablemente el hombre más temido en México, el hombre asumido como el verdadero jefe de la mafia mexicana..." #ArizonaMafia #NXIVM
...[continued] "...con sus negocios multimillonarios de lavado de dinero, venta de drogas, tráfico de personas, manejo de armas y asesinato." Plug that quote 2 Google Translate 2 learn abt #CarlosSalinas, the man my frmr. friend Marco Lopez & his #ArizonaMafia have been wkg with.
Read 39 tweets
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Zarina Zabrisky
@ZarinaZabrisky
💥💥💥Thread: the connections between the author/sponsor of a proposal to divide #California and the #Russian government and oligarchs. #TimDraper #cal3 #November2018 @WendySiegelman @dcpoll @grantstern @peterjukes @brexit_sham @ushadrons @FavThngs @patrickLSimpson
1. A proposal to divide California into three separate states will appear on the November 2018 ballot. The “Cal 3” campaign got enough signatures for a statewide referendum.
theguardian.com/us-news/2018/j…
2. The author and sponsor of this proposal is a billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper. He first came up with the idea in 2013. His first attempt to divide California into six smaller states in 2014 cost him $5.2m...
Read 45 tweets

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