Thread by @ChhabraT

THREAD-Great to launch w/ @ryanl_hass a new @BrookingsFP series on China’s foreign policy

Smart new voices—@RushDoshi @DaveShullman @JosephTorigian @baggottcarter @zhubochubo @VivianChang36 @abigailcgrace A Wong & G Yin—tell us how & how much Xi matters

tinyurl.com/y7ocmhgv

On this question—critical for both sinologists & strategists—our contributors generally agree there’s much more continuity than change. It’s not all about Xi.

brookings.edu/articles/how-m…

.@RushDoshi argues that Beijing’s former strategy of ‘hiding and biding’ always had an expiry date because it was contingent on the Party’s assessment of the international balance of power.

brookings.edu/articles/hus-t…

.@JosephTorigian tells us it’s unlikely, although not impossible, that domestic discontent with Xi’s foreign policy could challenge Xi’s standing in a fundamental way. And his FP ideas don’t seem to represent a radical departure.

brookings.edu/articles/elite…

George Yin says Xi faces real risks from internal criticism over his handling of China’s economy and U.S.-China relations, & is therefore unlikely to amp up confrontation.

brookings.edu/articles/domes…

.@baggottcarter also believes Xi faces elite internal challenges, but says Xi will seek to offset through diversionary aggression that will shore up public support.

brookings.edu/articles/diver…

Focusing on the South and East China seas, @zhubochubo says Beijing has been moving along a consistent trajectory since at least 2006, and its maritime policy is less susceptible to carrots and sticks than many policymakers believe.

brookings.edu/articles/xi-ji…

China’s influence efforts in developing countries, says @DaveShullman, are driven by the CCP’s longstanding obsession w/ preserving its rule & a perception of mounting threats to Party control. These predate & in fact facilitated Xi’s elevation.

brookings.edu/articles/prote…

Audrye Wong says economic statecraft has long has been a key feature of Chinese foreign policy, even if it has become more ambitious in scope and scale since the 2008 global financial crisis.

brookings.edu/articles/china…

.@VivianChang36 finds a consistent pattern predating Xi in Beijing’s coercive but non-military responses to the 2010 Nobel given to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, and to South Korea’s 2017 THAAD deployment.

brookings.edu/articles/chine…

And @abigailcgrace says Beijing’s ambitions for regional security partnerships also predate Xi, even if the depth & breadth of regional security engagement is increasing.

brookings.edu/articles/compr…

Bottom line: Yes, Xi matters, but our contributors make a strong case that fundamental tensions are deeper & likely enduring. Significant changes to current policy are needed to ensure the US can compete vigorously against an ambitious and aggressive China.

NB 1: @ryanl_hass & I are immensely grateful to our contributors, and to @AnnaBNewby @RachelASlattery @MorelandBW & Zach Bailin for editing & producing this paper series.

NB 2: This series on China’s foreign policy raises the curtain on a major, forthcoming @BrookingsFP initiative led by @brucebrookings, involving 70+ Brookings colleagues: a 2-year, comprehensive assessment of rising China’s growing global influence.

More details TBA March 2019.