Thread by @tony_nog

1) Thread
The options for #Brexit are still:
- May's deal as is
- No deal
- Remain
That's it, and whenever there is a focus on that Remain clearly comes out as the better option

But we don't focus on that because too many powerful groups want to pretend there's a unicorn 4th way

2) The hard brexiters want to pretend no deal is not really no deal but a "managed no deal" which will somehow force the EU27 into a "better" deal

Corbyn's front bench want to pretend there's a Labour "better" deal following new negotiations

3) the May government is about to support an ammendment to strike out the backstop, which everyone knows is simply not going to happen

And with respect to the Norway + supporters, whilst Remainers would accept this, it's not actually on the table as a confirmed option

4) 4 separate groups, all pretending Brexit reality is not actually reality, all making offers without any reference to or acceptance of the point of view of the EU27.

All 4 creating confusion & misdirection at a crucial time

5) and behind all 4 groups is the same underlying falacy - a failure to internalise that the UK won't get exactly what it wants, no matter how many times it asks.

It's a national misapprehension: the UK will, surely, get the deal it wants because, well, its the UK

6) and because of this we cannot have a proper debate, a real discussion around the 3 options of no deal, May's deal & Remain

And in particular we can't have a proper appreciation of No deal & it's consequences, because the debate is clouded by the mythical "4th way"

7) Consider the average "no dealer" member of the public. Do they really want no deal, or do they believe as David Davis tells them that threatening no deal will get the EU27 to cave?
Probably the latter as no deal is really a continuation of "they need us more than we need them"

8) watch any #BBCQT and the underlying belief from no deal audience members is if we just "stand firm" the EU27 will come running - it's the narrative from Mogg, Johnson and others

"they need our £39b, they'll cave" is the message & blackmail the intention

9) so to take an example - that no deal member of the public hears the Labour Front Bench say "yes, no deal is very, very bad - but *Brexit itself* is OK & we believe we can get a better deal via persuasion, because we're the 5th largest economy"

10) what is that no dealer meant to think? "OK, so even Labour are saying a better deal is possible via negotiation.. but Labour aren't in power, and anyway, why should we have to negotiate? I'll believe Mogg & Co because they're saying we can force them"

https://twitter.com/tony_nog/status/1089479978390089729?s=20

11) this, fundamentally is the issue we have.
#Brexit isn't complicated, it never was, and the options have always been No Deal (genuine, catastrophic no deal), some variation of May's deal or Remain.

An honest, straightforward discussion on that basis would focus thinking

12) but too many powerful forces (including Labour Front bench) don't want to face that reality - they want to believe, and they want to say, some other 4th way is possible

And by lying to themselves & the public they are letting us all down

13) 52% of the public do not, in my opinion, want a genuine, destructive no deal.

But perhaps 40% believe that threatening no deal will get to the deal Vote Leave promised.

Why not? They're constantly being told a better deal is available
End/